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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220201151754.E1BC51C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 1 Feb 2022 15:17:54 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 011517
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Feb 1 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1430 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 05N95W. The ITCZ extends
from 05N95W to 09N123W to 08N140W. Isolated moderate convection 
is noted from 08N-16N between 123W-132W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Quiescent conditions prevail over the Mexican Offshore waters
with moderate or weaker winds occurring. Seas are 1-2 ft over 
the Gulf of California and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, building high pressure west of California 
combined with low pressure developing over the SW United States 
and Mexico will produce fresh to strong NW winds and building 
seas over the waters west of the Baja California peninsula 
tonight through Thu morning. This synoptic pattern will also 
produce fresh to strong NW winds over the Gulf of California Wed 
morning to Thu night. The next Tehuantepecer N gap wind event is 
expected to begin Fri and reach gale-force Fri night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh NE gap winds prevail across the Papagayo 
region this morning with seas 5-6 ft. Moderate to fresh N winds 
and seas 4-6 ft are occurring over the Gulf of Panama. Light to 
gentle winds and seas of 3-5 ft are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE winds in the Papagayo 
region will prevail the remainder of the week, with strong NE 
winds possibly resuming Sat night. Moderate to fresh N winds in 
the Gulf of Panama today will diminish to gentle to moderate 
through the remainder of the week. Elsewhere, conditions should 
remain tranquil across the Central American and equatorial 
waters.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

The pressure gradient between a 1039 mb high centered near 
44N138W and a trough from 23N140W to 27N137W is forcing fresh to
strong E winds north of 24N and west of 132W. Seas are 8-9 ft
in mixed E wind waves and NW swell. Elsewhere north of
the ITCZ, the NE trades are gentle to moderate. South of the 
ITCZ, the SE trades are also gentle to moderate. Seas are 5-7 ft
in mixed swell.

For the forecast, the trough will move west of our waters today
and the high will sink southward during the next two days. The
area of fresh to strong NE trades will expand and reach south to
12N and east to 120W by Wed night. The winds will relax slightly
Thu through Sat. Seas will increase, peaking around 15 ft north
of 28N east of 130W on Wed. Seas of 8-11 ft will remain between
10-25N west of 120W through the end of the week.

$$ 
Landsea


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