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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
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Message-ID: <20220202120244.085661C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Wed, 2 Feb 2022 12:02:44 +0000
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613 
AWIO20 FMEE 021158

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2022/02/02 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


New warning WTIO20 and WTIO30 025/02 issued at 06UTC on the Intense Tropical Cyclone BATSIRAI.

Next warnings issued at 12UTC.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:


The basin is in a monsoon trough (MT) pattern over its entire width along an axis undulating between 13 and 20S. Two low-pressure circulations are embedded in this MT, with on the one hand intense tropical cyclone BATSIRAI tracking to the immediate north of the Mascarene Islands and on the other hand a low of weaker intensity occupying the eastern part of the basin, centered around 18.5S/82.5E this Wednesday. Convective activity is essentially organized around these two entities.

Intense Tropical Cyclone BATSIRAI :

Position at 09UTC: 18.7S / 57.0E

Movement : West to West-South-West at 10kt

Maximum wind averaged over 10min : 100kt

Minimum central pressure : 940hPa
For more information, please refer to bulletins WTIO20 and WTIO30 issued at 06UTC and following.

Over the eastern basin :

Partial morning ASCAT passes combined with satellite imagery and the CIMSS MIMIC-TPW product suggest a still elongated clockwise circulation centered around 18.5S/82.5E this Wednesday, locally exhibiting near-gale force winds. Associated convective activity is organized in its northern and eastern part in humid tropical air while drier subtropical air is present to its southwest. In the next few days, low level convergence between the trade wind flow south of the minimum and the monsoon flow to the north should improve and may favor a more pronounced deepening of the low. Nevertheless, the presence of dry mid-tropospheric air along the southwestern edge of the vortex and moderate shear could hinder its development, preventing it from forming a sufficiently long-lasting moist pocket above the surface minimum. Ensemble models give significant cyclogenesis probabilities, but because of this mixed environment and an intensification window that appears to be closing next Monday, t
 he risk 
 of tropical storm formation is only considered moderate for this weekend.

There is a moderate risk for another moderate tropical storm forming over the eastern basin from Friday to Sunday.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.

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