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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Intense Tropical Cyclone 2 (batsirai) 
Message-ID: <20220203075022.0DD7A1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 3 Feb 2022 07:50:22 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 030712
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 33/2/20212022
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/03 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.0 S / 55.3 E
(NINETEEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 942 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 52 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 610 SW: 610 NW: 445
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SW: 240 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/03 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 54.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 400 SW: 465 NW: 360
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SW: 260 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 140 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 75

24H: 2022/02/04 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 52.9 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 445 SW: 470 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 240 SW: 250 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 130 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75

36H: 2022/02/04 18 UTC: 19.6 S / 51.4 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 555 SW: 435 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 315 SW: 260 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65

48H: 2022/02/05 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 49.2 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 620 SW: 400 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 350 SW: 260 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 55

60H: 2022/02/05 18 UTC: 20.3 S / 46.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 585 SW: 280 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 345 SW: 155 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 45

72H: 2022/02/06 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SW: 455 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 95

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/07 06 UTC: 22.3 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 520 SW: 465 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 335 SW: 250 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 65

120H: 2022/02/08 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 38.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 630 SW: 480 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 425 SW: 285 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0;CI=5.5

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, EVIDENCE OF AN ONGOING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE (ERC) IS CONFIRMED. THE WEAKENING OF THE INNER EYEWALL AND THE
STRENGTHENING OF AN OUTER EYEWALL ARE VISIBLE IN THE 0022Z AND 0224Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE DATA, AS WELL AS RADAR IMAGERY. NEVERTHELESS, A
REMNANT INNER EYEWALL STILL SEEMS PARTIALLY PRESENT AT 06UTC. THE
0506Z ASCAT-B PASS INDEED SHOWS THAT STRONG WINDS ARE STILL PRESENT
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE INNER WALL. THE RMW HAS BEEN INCREASED TO
28NM/52KM (COMPARED TO 9NM/17KM ESTIMATED AT 00UTC) TO TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT THE CURRENT CHANGE OF THE EYE'S STRUCTURE BUT WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE ESTIMATION, AS THERE MAY STILL BE SOME REMNANTS OF
THE FORMER INNER EYEWALL. ASCAT DATA ALSO CONFIRM THAT THE GALE FORCE
WINDS RADIUS REACHES REUNION ISLAND. WITH THE CURRENT ERC, THE
SYSTEM'S EYE PATTERN HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED WITH A 3-HOUR AVERAGED
DT DROPPING AROUND 5.0. MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE THUS BEEN LOWERED TO 90KT
AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY INCREASED TO TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT THE CURRENT ERC AND THE SYSTEM'S INNER CORE DEGRADATION, BUT
WITH AN IMPORTANT UNCERTAINTY ON THE ACTUAL INTENSITY.

BATSIRAI REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS
MOVING ON A GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK. ITS MOVEMENT WILL
ACCELERATE BEFORE ITS ARRIVAL ON SATURDAY ON THE MALAGASY COAST. IT
COULD THEN LAND IN THE MAHANORO AREA WITH AN UNCERTAINTY OF ABOUT
100KM ON THE IMPACT AREA. ON SUNDAY, BATSIRAI WILL EMERGE AS A WEAKER
SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, TRACKING CLOSE TO EUROPA
ON SUNDAY NIGHT. ITS TRACK COULD THEN CURVE MORE TOWARDS THE
SOUTH-WEST WITH THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, BUT THIS
REMAINS TO BE CONFIRMED.

CURRENTLY, BATSIRAI IS IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNTIL SATURDAY
WITH VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WEAK WIND SHEAR. THE
CURRENT EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE BRINGS A TEMPORARY AND RELATIVE
WEAKENING OF ITS INTENSITY (BUT A BROADER RADIUS OF STRONG WINDS AT
THE CYCLONE'S PERIPHERY), BEFORE A PROBABLE NEW INTENSIFICATION UNTIL
LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR. IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, AFTER A
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING FOLLOWING ITS OVERLAND TRACK, THE SYSTEM COULD
RESUME GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IN RATHER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS AT LEAST UNTIL MONDAY.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
- REUNION : THE DISTURBED METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS
THURSDAY (CYCLONIC RED ALERT IN PROGRESS). EVEN IF THE HEART OF THE
CYCLONE PASSES AT 200 KM, SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED (HEAVY
RAINS, STRONG WINDS, SWELL).
- MADAGASCAR : THE DANGEROUS CYCLONE'S LANDFALL IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY ON THE EAST COAST, POTENTIALLY AT A STAGE OF INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE, WITH A POSSIBLE BEGINNING OF RAIN AND WIND IMPACTS
FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A MAXIMUM SURGE OF ABOUT 1M IS LIKELY SOUTH OF
THE LANDFALL AREA. INHABITANTS ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY FOLLOW THE
SITUATION.=

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