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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Intense Tropical Cyclone 2 (batsirai) 
Message-ID: <20220203184248.CAFFA1C0087@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 3 Feb 2022 18:42:48 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 031820
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 35/2/20212022
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/03 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.3 S / 54.5 E
(NINETEEN    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 942 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 41 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 705 SW: 665 NW: 405
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 205
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/04 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 53.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 585 SW: 470 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SW: 260 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75

24H: 2022/02/04 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 51.6 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 585 SW: 445 NW: 350
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 295 SW: 250 NW: 215
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75

36H: 2022/02/05 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 49.6 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 610 SW: 315 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 315 SW: 185 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 75

48H: 2022/02/05 18 UTC: 20.5 S / 47.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 480 SW: 185 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 230 SW: 95 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 65 SW: 0 NW: 30

60H: 2022/02/06 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 465 SW: 470 NW: 315

72H: 2022/02/06 18 UTC: 22.0 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 535 SW: 545 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 220

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/07 18 UTC: 23.3 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 640 SW: 520 NW: 470
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 345 SW: 280 NW: 295
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 130 NW: 35

120H: 2022/02/08 18 UTC: 25.0 S / 39.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 675 SW: 530 NW: 455
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 370 SW: 260 NW: 280
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 90 SW: 120 NW: 40

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEEN MAINTAINED
WITH A NOTICEABLE EXTENSION OF THE EYE WALL ON THE INFRARED IMAGES. A
DVORAK ANALYSIS AVERAGED OVER 6 HOURS GIVES A VALUE OF 5.5 AS IN THE
PREVIOUS PERIOD. THE DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM REUNION ALLOWS TO
ESTIMATE WINDS OF ABOUT 100KT AT ABOUT 3000M ALTITUDE. THUS BATSIRAI
RESISTS WELL TO ITS SLOW DISPLACEMENT AND TO THE REPLACEMENT CYCLE OF
THE EYE WALL : THE ESTIMATED AVERAGE WINDS REMAIN AROUND 90KT, SO
STILL AT THE THRESHOLD OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. ON THE LAST
MOMENTS, THE MOVEMENT TOWARDS WEST-SOUTH-WEST SEEMS TO RESUME WITH A
LIGHT ACCELERATION.

BATSIRAI REMAINS MAINLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AND IS MOVING ON A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK. AFTER A MOMENT OF HESITATION
DUE TO THE RESISTANCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE, BATSIRAI WILL
START ITS ACCELERATION TOWARDS MADAGASCAR. A LANDING IS PLANNED ON
SATURDAY ON THE MALAGASY COAST, IN THE MAHANORO REGION WITH AN
UNCERTAINTY OF ABOUT 150KM ON THE IMPACT AREA. THE TIMING IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. ON SUNDAY, BATSIRAI WILL EMERGE, WEAKENED, IN THE SOUTH OF
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. IT WILL PASS CLOSE TO EUROPA ISLAND BEFORE
BENDING ITS TRACK MORE TO THE SOUTH-WEST OR EVEN SOUTH EARLY NEXT
WEEK DUE TO THE WEAKENING AND EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. AS A RESULT OF THE SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS MORE OR
LESS MARKED TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTH, THE TRACK FORECAST BY THE RSMC
KEEPS THE SYSTEM AWAY FROM THE LAND OF MOZAMBIQUE, A SCENARIO THAT
WILL HAVE TO BE CONFIRMED IN THE NEXT FORECASTS.

CURRENTLY, BATSIRAI IS IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNTIL SATURDAY
WITH NOTABLY A VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WEAK SHEARS. THE
REPLACEMENT CYCLE OF THE EYEWALL WHICH IS ENDING AND ITS SLOW
DISPLACEMENT HAVE WEAKENED A BIT THE INTENSITY OF BATSIRAI. HOWEVER,
BATSIRAI IS RESISTING AND MAINTAINING AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
INTENSITY WITH A GREATER EXTENSION OF STRONG WINDS TO THE PERIPHERY
OF THE CYCLONE. THE RESUMPTION OF ITS MOVEMENT SHOULD BLUR THE LOSS
OF OCEANIC POTENTIAL THAT SHOULD START TO BE FELT. IT IS NECESSARY TO
WAIT FOR A MORE FRANK ACCELERATION ON ITS DISPLACEMENT FOR A NEW
INTENSIFICATION. DURING ITS PATH TOWARDS MADAGASCAR, DURING ITS
INTENSIFICATION PHASE, A NEW CONTRACTION OF THE EYE IS POSSIBLE UNTIL
THE LANDING ON MADAGASCAR POTENTIALLY AT THE STAGE OF INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, AFTER A SIGNIFICANT
WEAKENING FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE ON THE LAND, THE SYSTEM COULD AGAIN
DEVELOP IN RATHER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AT LEAST UNTIL MONDAY.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
- REUNION : THE DISTURBED METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS
NIGHT ON REUNION (CYCLONIC RED ALERT IN PROGRESS). EVEN IF THE HEART
OF THE CYCLONE PASSES AT ABOUT 200 KM, SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED (HEAVY RAINS AND RISK OF FLOODING, STRONG WINDS, SWELL).
- MADAGASCAR : BATSIRAI IS A VERY DANGEROUS CYCLONE FOR THE EAST
COAST OF MADAGASCAR, WITH A LANDFALL EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NEAR
MAHANORO (SOUTH OF ATSINANANA REGION) POTENTIALLY AT A STAGE OF
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE, WITH THE BEGINNING OF RAIN AND WIND IMPACTS
POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE CYCLONIC SWELL SHOULD REACH THE
COAST DURING THE DAY OF FRIDAY REACHING HEIGHTS CLOSE TO 8M IN THE
MOST PROBABLE HEIGHTS AND MAXIMUMS WHICH CAN APPROACH 15M. A MAXIMUM
SURGE OF ABOUT 1M/1M50 OR MORE IS LIKELY NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
LANDING ZONE. THE POPULATIONS CONCERNED ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CYCLONE WITH ATTENTION AND TO FOLLOW THE
INSTRUCTIONS OF THE LOCAL AUTHORITIES.=

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