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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone 09p (nine) Warning Nr 013// 
Message-ID: <20220203203821.131651C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 3 Feb 2022 20:38:21 +0000
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WTPS31 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (NINE) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (NINE) WARNING NR 013
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   031800Z --- NEAR 18.2S 161.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 161.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z --- 19.3S 164.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 18.5S 162.2E.
03FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 353
NM NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 09P REMAINS IN
A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AND IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO FURTHER
INTENSIFY. THE CURRENT INITIAL INTENSITY OF 20 KTS IS BASED OFF A
1450Z AMSR2 WIND SPEED PRODUCT SHOWING 18-20 KT WINDS JUST NORTH OF
THE ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE SOUTHWESTWARD. DESPITE THE FINAL WARNING OF 09P, THERE
REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY IN THE CORAL SEA
WITHIN THE NEXT 96 HOURS. THE 12Z MODEL RUN OF GFS IS CURRENTLY
SHOWING TWO CYCLONES FORMING AROUND TAU 84: ONE BETWEEN VANUATU AND
NEW CALEDONIA AND ANOTHER TO THE EAST, JUST SOUTH OF FIJI, WHICH
COULD POSSIBLY BE THE REMNANTS OF 09P OR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID-
LEVEL CYCLONE CURRENTLY NORTH OF 09P. AROUND TAU 102, GFS DEPICTS
THE EASTERN CYCLONE PASSING ROUGHLY 300NM WEST OF TONGA. CURRENT
MODEL RUNS OF EC AND NVGM ONLY DEPICT DEVELOPMENT OF THE WESTERN
CYCLONE NEAR VANUATU AND NEW CALEDONIA. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 8 FEET.//
NNNN


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