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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220203213551.AD8301C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 3 Feb 2022 21:35:51 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 032135
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Feb 03 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 2130 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front will move across
the western Gulf of Mexico Friday. Strong high pressure will
build in the wake of the front, surging southward over the=20
western Gulf of Mexico and eastern Mexico Fri. The pressure
gradient will tighten between this building high pressure and the
equatorial trough in the eastern Pacific. Strong N to NE winds=20
will funnel into the Gulf of Tehuantepec early Fri. Winds will=20
further increase to gale-force during the afternoon and further=20
increase to strong gale-force on Sat, before diminishing below=20
gale- force by Sun evening. Occasional gusts to storm force are
possible Sat. Seas with this upcoming event are forecast to peak
near 18 ft Sat. Mariners are urged to stay tuned to future=20
forecasts that will highlight details regarding this upcoming=20
event. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the=20
National Hurricane Center at website=20
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__=
;!!DZ3fjg!q9Eqi1iLy5s5ZZdbYaNaWosIS1teTBForw4Lq1vg8HE9BUh_jcVyuLUvg06qLjlDA=
EGGdoSB$  for further=20
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 07N89W, where latest=20
scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to=20
08N105W to 08N1145W. It resumes near 08N130W to beyond 06N140W.=20
Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of the ITCZ west=20
of 139W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gale-force gap wind event.

Fresh to strong NW winds are noted over much of the Gulf of=20
California with gentle to moderate winds over the far southern=20
portion and entrance to the Gulf. Seas over the Gulf are in the=20
6-8 ft range over the portion of the Gulf where fresh to strong
winds prevail, and 2-3 ft over the portion with gentle to
moderate winds. Gentle to moderate winds are west of the Baja=20
California peninsula, and light to gentle winds prevail over the=20
remainder of the forecast waters. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range=20
west of Baja California Norte in northerly swell, and 4-6 ft=20
elsewhere.=20

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the=20
aforementioned ridge and surface trough over Mexico will support
fresh to strong winds over the Gulf of California through Fri.
Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. The next gale-=20
force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is expected from=20
Fri afternoon to Sun. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail=20
elsewhere.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh gap winds prevail across the Papagayo region as
well as over the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds prevail=20
elsewhere. Seas of 3-5 ft in S to SW swell are noted over the=20
discussion waters.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE winds in the Papagayo=20
region will diminish slightly tonight, then increase to fresh to=20
strong speeds Sat and Sat night. Moderate to fresh N winds over=20
the Gulf of Panama will diminish slightly today. Elsewhere, light
to gentle winds will prevail across the Central American and=20
equatorial waters. Swell generated from a gale-force gap wind=20
event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will produce large seas over the
Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters this weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure of 1034 mb is centered north of the area near=20
39N132W. The pressure gradient between this area of high=20
pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is=20
supporting fresh to strong winds north of the ITCZ to near 19N=20
and west of about 124W. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere=20
north of the ITCZ and west of 115W. Seas over this area are in=20
the 8-11 ft range, except for slightly higher seas of up to 12 ft
north of 26N between 120W-130W as was noted in an altimeter data
pass from earlier today over that part of the area. Gentle to=20
moderate winds and seas of 5-7 ft are elsewhere.

For the forecast, the area of high pressure will remain north of
the area the next several days. This will maintain an area of=20
fresh to strong NE trades over the waters from 10N to 20N and=20
west of 120W. The winds will start to diminish slowly beginning
Fri and through the weekend. Seas of 8-11 ft will remain between
10N and 25N west of 120W through Fri.

$$
Aguirre


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