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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Intense Tropical Cyclone 2 (batsirai) 
Message-ID: <20220204000358.81F081C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 4 Feb 2022 00:03:58 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 040000
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 36/2/20212022
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/04 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.4 S / 53.6 E
(NINETEEN    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 44 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 665 SW: 555 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 335 SW: 370 NW: 260
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 90 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/04 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 52.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 545 SW: 465 NW: 390
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 305 SW: 295 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65

24H: 2022/02/05 00 UTC: 20.0 S / 50.6 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 555 SW: 380 NW: 405
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 315 SW: 250 NW: 230
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75

36H: 2022/02/05 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 48.6 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 500 SW: 205 NW: 380
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 280 SW: 140 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 65

48H: 2022/02/06 00 UTC: 21.1 S / 45.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SW: 185 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 95 NW: 95

60H: 2022/02/06 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 600 SW: 425 NW: 445

72H: 2022/02/07 00 UTC: 22.3 S / 41.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 665 SW: 465 NW: 465
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 95 NW: 95

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/08 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 665 SW: 480 NW: 520
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 400 SW: 325 NW: 285
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 35

120H: 2022/02/09 00 UTC: 25.7 S / 39.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 555 SE: 705 SW: 490 NW: 545
34 KT NE: 315 SE: 455 SW: 350 NW: 295

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5+

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE WITH A
POORLY DEFINED EYE IN INFRARED IMAGES. IN THE LAST FEW MOMENTS, THERE
SEEMS TO BE A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT PROBABLY TRANSLATING A BEGINNING OF
REINTENSIFICATION IN CONNECTION WITH THE RESUMPTION OF A MORE FRANK
MOVEMENT. INDEED, THE RADAR IMAGES SHOW AN ACCELERATION IN THE
WESTWARD MOVEMENT. IN THESE CIRCUMSTANCES, WE CAN DEFINE A DVORAK
ANALYSIS WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE, LEAVING AN ESTIMATE OF THE AVERAGE
WINDS OVER 10 MINUTES AT 95KT.

BATSIRAI REMAINS MAINLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AND HAS RESUMED A MORE DIRECT MOVEMENT: IT IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE
MASCAREIGNES AND ON A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK TOWARDS MADAGASCAR. A
LANDING IS PLANNED ON SATURDAY ON THE MALAGASY COAST, IN THE MAHANORO
REGION WITH AN UNCERTAINTY OF ABOUT 150KM ON THE IMPACT AREA. THE
TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE RECENT ACCELERATION. ON SUNDAY,
BATSIRAI WILL EMERGE, WEAKENED, IN THE SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL. IT WILL PASS CLOSE TO EUROPA ISLAND BEFORE BENDING ITS TRACK
MORE TO THE SOUTH-WEST OR EVEN SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE
WEAKENING AND EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE VARIOUS
GUIDELINES SEEM TO CONFIRM THIS SCENARIO WHICH KEEPS THE SYSTEM AWAY
FROM THE LAND OF MOZAMBIQUE.

CURRENTLY, BATSIRAI IS IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNTIL SATURDAY
WITH NOTABLY A VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WEAK SHEARS.
HOWEVER, BECAUSE OF ITS SLOW MOVEMENT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS, THE
OCEANIC POTENTIAL HAS BEEN WELL STARTED. THIS HAS THE EFFECT OF
LIMITING THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. THE RESUMPTION OF ITS
MOVEMENT SHOULD BLUR THIS LOSS OF OCEANIC POTENTIAL AND ALLOW A NEW
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. DURING ITS PATH TOWARDS
MADAGASCAR, DURING ITS INTENSIFICATION PHASE, A NEW CONTRACTION OF
THE EYE IS POSSIBLE UNTIL THE LANDING ON MADAGASCAR POTENTIALLY AT
THE STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL,
AFTER A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE ON THE LANDS, THE
SYSTEM COULD AGAIN DEVELOP IN RATHER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AT LEAST
UNTIL MONDAY. IN THE LONGER TERM, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
(MAINLY SHEAR) SHOULD LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
- REUNION : THE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS STILL CURRENTLY DISTURBED
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY ON THE REUNION.
- MADAGASCAR : BATSIRAI IS A VERY DANGEROUS CYCLONE FOR THE EAST
COAST OF MADAGASCAR, WITH A LANDFALL EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NEAR
MAHANORO (SOUTH OF ATSINANANA REGION) POTENTIALLY AT A STAGE OF
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE, WITH THE BEGINNING OF RAIN AND WIND IMPACTS
POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE CYCLONIC SWELL SHOULD REACH THE
COAST DURING THE DAY OF FRIDAY REACHING HEIGHTS CLOSE TO 8M IN THE
MOST PROBABLE HEIGHTS AND MAXIMUMS WHICH CAN APPROACH 15M. A MAXIMUM
SURGE OF ABOUT 1M/1M50 OR MORE IS LIKELY NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
LANDING ZONE. THE POPULATIONS CONCERNED ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CYCLONE WITH ATTENTION AND TO FOLLOW THE
INSTRUCTIONS OF THE LOCAL AUTHORITIES.=

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