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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian Ocean 
Message-ID: <20220204030214.1ACC01C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 4 Feb 2022 03:02:14 +0000
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TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 040330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/040330Z-041800ZFEB2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040151ZFEB2022//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040251ZFEB2022//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL
/CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 04FEB22 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 19.4S 53.9E, APPROXIMATELY 103 NM NORTHWEST OF ST
DENIS, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 105 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 130 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 040300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.5S 83.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.2S 83.6E, APPROXIMATELY 871
NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP FLARING CONVECTION PARTIALLY OBSCURING AN
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA
REVEALS WINDS OF UP TO 30 KNOTS OFFSET TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLC.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY; ROBUST OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (15-
20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90S WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS EQUATORWARD BEFORE TURNING TO A
MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AROUND TAU 36. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS21 PGTW 040300) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO
HIGH.//
NNNN


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