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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Intense Tropical Cyclone 2 (batsirai) 
Message-ID: <20220204062254.9F99A1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 4 Feb 2022 06:22:54 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 040618
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 37/2/20212022
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/04 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.4 S / 53.1 E
(NINETEEN    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 44 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 665 SW: 555 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 335 SW: 370 NW: 260
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 90 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/04 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 51.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 545 SW: 435 NW: 415
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 305 SW: 280 NW: 240
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

24H: 2022/02/05 06 UTC: 20.2 S / 49.9 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 555 SW: 350 NW: 435
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 315 SW: 230 NW: 250
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75

36H: 2022/02/05 18 UTC: 20.7 S / 47.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 545 SW: 285 NW: 405
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 315 SW: 130 NW: 130

48H: 2022/02/06 06 UTC: 21.6 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 655 SW: 380 NW: 435

60H: 2022/02/06 18 UTC: 22.2 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 675 SW: 425 NW: 435
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 405 SW: 285 NW: 240

72H: 2022/02/07 06 UTC: 22.8 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 640 SW: 445 NW: 425
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 400 SW: 315 NW: 220

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/08 06 UTC: 24.5 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 685 SW: 465 NW: 530
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 405 SW: 315 NW: 295

120H: 2022/02/09 06 UTC: 26.7 S / 40.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 750 SW: 545 NW: 555
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 490 SW: 380 NW: 295

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5+

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE WITH A
POORLY DEFINED EYE IN INFRARED IMAGES. IN THE LAST FEW MOMENTS, THERE
SEEMS TO BE A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT, WITH A SHARPER EYE, PROBABLY
TRANSLATING A BEGINNING OF REINTENSIFICATION IN CONNECTION WITH THE
RESUMPTION OF A MORE FRANK MOVEMENT. INDEED, THE RADAR IMAGES SHOW AN
ACCELERATION IN THE WESTWARD MOVEMENT. IN THESE CIRCUMSTANCES, WE CAN
DEFINE A DVORAK ANALYSIS WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE, LEAVING AN ESTIMATE
OF THE AVERAGE WINDS OVER 10 MINUTES AT 95KT.

BATSIRAI REMAINS MAINLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AND HAS RESUMED A MORE DIRECT MOVEMENT: IT IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE
MASCAREIGNES AND ON A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK TOWARDS MADAGASCAR. A
LANDING IS PLANNED ON SATURDAY ON THE MALAGASY COAST, IN THE MAHANORO
REGION WITH AN UNCERTAINTY OF ABOUT 150KM ON THE IMPACT AREA. THE
TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE RECENT ACCELERATION. ON SUNDAY,
BATSIRAI WILL EMERGE, WEAKENED, IN THE SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL. IT WILL PASS CLOSE TO EUROPA ISLAND BEFORE BENDING ITS TRACK
MORE TO THE SOUTH-WEST OR EVEN SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE
WEAKENING AND EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE VARIOUS
GUIDELINES SEEM TO CONFIRM THIS SCENARIO WHICH KEEPS THE SYSTEM AWAY
FROM THE LAND OF MOZAMBIQUE.

CURRENTLY, BATSIRAI IS IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNTIL SATURDAY
WITH NOTABLY A VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WEAK SHEARS.
HOWEVER, BECAUSE OF ITS SLOW MOVEMENT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS, THE
OCEANIC POTENTIAL HAS BEEN WELL STARTED. THIS HAS THE EFFECT OF
LIMITING THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. THE RESUMPTION OF ITS
MOVEMENT SHOULD BLUR THIS LOSS OF OCEANIC POTENTIAL AND ALLOW A NEW
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. DURING ITS PATH TOWARDS
MADAGASCAR, DURING ITS INTENSIFICATION PHASE, A NEW CONTRACTION OF
THE EYE IS POSSIBLE UNTIL THE LANDING ON MADAGASCAR POTENTIALLY AT
THE STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, AFTER A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING FOLLOWING
ITS PASSAGE OVER LAND, THE SYSTEM COULD AGAIN DEVELOP UNDER FAIRLY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AT LEAST UNTIL MONDAY, BENEFITING FROM A GOOD
POLAR EVACUATION CHANNEL. IN THE LONGER TERM, THE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS (MAINLY SHEAR, AND THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN THE
NORTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM) SHOULD LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AS
IT PLUNGES TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
- REUNION : THE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS STILL CURRENTLY DISTURBED
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TODAY ON FRIDAY ON THE REUNION.
- MADAGASCAR : BATSIRAI IS A VERY DANGEROUS CYCLONE FOR THE EAST
COAST OF MADAGASCAR, WITH A LANDFALL EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NEAR
MAHANORO (SOUTH OF ATSINANANA REGION) POTENTIALLY AT A STAGE OF
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE, WITH THE BEGINNING OF RAIN AND WIND IMPACTS
POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE CYCLONIC SWELL SHOULD REACH THE
COAST DURING THE DAY OF FRIDAY REACHING HEIGHTS CLOSE TO 8M IN THE
MOST PROBABLE HEIGHTS AND MAXIMUMS WHICH CAN APPROACH 15M. A MAXIMUM
SURGE OF ABOUT 1M/1M50 OR MORE IS LIKELY NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
LANDING ZONE. THE POPULATIONS CONCERNED ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CYCLONE WITH ATTENTION AND TO FOLLOW THE
INSTRUCTIONS OF THE LOCAL AUTHORITIES.=

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