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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220204092219.48D871C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 4 Feb 2022 09:22:19 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 040922
TWDEP=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Feb 4 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0920 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: Strong high pressure will=20
build in the wake of a cold front moving across the Gulf of=20
Mexico today. The pressure gradient will tighten between this=20
building high pressure and the equatorial trough in the eastern=20
Pacific. Strong N to NE winds will funnel into the Gulf of=20
Tehuantepec this morning, rapidly increasing to gale-force and=20
further increasing to storm-force late tonight into Sat. On=20
Saturday, winds will diminish back to gale-force before=20
diminishing below gale-force by Sun afternoon. Seas with this=20
upcoming event are forecast to peak near 22 ft Sat. Mariners are=20
urged to stay tuned to future forecasts that will highlight=20
details regarding this upcoming event. Please read the latest=20
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at=20
website https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2=
.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!tWeJCxqjHr5facu8XCQ59oCRO7vJToKKfzwFOvwXMYY3n5GnPmWylYZT7=
_0wsNnswqwn6WXJ$  for further
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...Corrected

A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 05N89W to 06N99W. The ITCZ
begins near 06N99W to 08N118W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate=20
convection is from 06N to 12N between 122W and 132W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec storm-force gap wind event.

Fresh to strong NW winds continues along the Gulf of California
with seas to 5 ft. These winds are also funneling across the=20
Baja California peninsula mountain passages into the Baja=20
offshores where seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range in northerly=20
swell. Light to gentle winds prevail over the remainder of the=20
forecast waters with 4-5 ft seas.=20

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge of high
pressure across the waters west of Baja California and a surface
trough over Mexico will support fresh to strong NW winds over=20
the Gulf of California through Sat evening. Strong winds will=20
also continue to funnel through the Baja California peninsula=20
mountain passages into the offshore waters during this period.=20
The next gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
will begin this morning, with winds increasing to storm-force=20
late tonight into Sat, back to gale-force on Sat and diminishing
below gale-force Sun afternoon. Gentle to moderate winds will=20
prevail elsewhere.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh gap winds prevail across the Papagayo region as
well as over the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds prevail=20
elsewhere. Seas of 3-5 ft in S to SW swell are noted over the=20
discussion waters.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE winds in the Papagayo=20
region will increase to fresh to strong speeds tonight through
Mon, with winds likely reaching near gale-force speeds Sat=20
night. Moderate to fresh N winds over the Gulf of Panama will=20
continue through the middle of next week. Elsewhere, light to=20
gentle winds will prevail across the Central American and=20
equatorial waters through Wed. Swell generated from a storm-=20
force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will produce=20
large seas over the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters=20
this weekend into early next week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure of 1034 mb is centered north of the area. The=20
pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower=20
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to=20
strong winds north of the ITCZ to near 23N and west of about=20
123W. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ=20
and west of 115W. Seas over the area of strongest winds are in=20
the 8-10 ft range as indicated by an earlier altimeter pass.=20
Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5-6 ft are elsewhere.

For the forecast, the area of high pressure will remain north of
the area the next several days. This will maintain an area of=20
fresh to strong NE trades over the waters from 10N to 25N and=20
west of 120W. The winds will start to diminish slowly beginning=20
Mon night into the middle of next week when seas of 8 ft will
begin to subside.=20

$$
Ramos


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