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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Message-ID: <20220204121246.80B3D1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 4 Feb 2022 12:12:46 +0000
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611 
AWIO20 FMEE 041124

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2022/02/04 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


New warning WTIO20 and WTIO30 037/02 issued at 06UTC on the Intense Tropical Cyclone BATSIRAI.

Next warnings issued at 12UTC.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:


The basin is in a monsoon trough (MT) pattern over its entire width along an axis undulating between 12 and 15S. Two low-pressure circulations are embedded in this MT, with on the one hand intense tropical cyclone BATSIRAI tracking between the Mascarene Islands and Madagascar and on the other hand a low of weaker intensity occupying the eastern part of the basin, centered around 18.1S/83.6E. Convective activity is essentially organized around these two entities.

Intense Tropical Cyclone BATSIRAI :

Position at 09UTC: 19.1S / 55.1E

Movement : West to West-South-West at 4kt

Maximum wind averaged over 10min : 90kt

Minimum central pressure : 942hPa
For more information, please refer to bulletins WTIO20 and WTIO30 issued at 06UTC and following.

Tropical Depression no03-20212022 :

Position at 10UTC : 18.1S 83.6E

Displacement : South-West 6kt

Maximum wind averaged over 10 min : 30kt.

Minimum central pressure : 995 hPa

For more information, refer to bulletins WTIO20 and WTIO30 which will be issued at 12UTC and following.

There is no further risk of moderate tropical storm formation in the basin in the next five days.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.

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