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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Intense Tropical Cyclone 2 (batsirai) 
Message-ID: <20220204124524.3F5921C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 4 Feb 2022 12:45:24 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 041237
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 38/2/20212022
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/04 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.4 S / 52.6 E
(NINETEEN    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 0.5/18 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 934 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 665 SW: 555 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 335 SW: 335 NW: 260
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 90 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/05 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 51.6 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 630 SW: 350 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 350 SW: 230 NW: 215
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75

24H: 2022/02/05 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 49.0 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 535 SW: 270 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 285 SW: 185 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65

36H: 2022/02/06 00 UTC: 20.9 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 480 SW: 205 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 260 SW: 95 NW: 155

48H: 2022/02/06 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 43.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 470 SW: 325 NW: 305

60H: 2022/02/07 00 UTC: 22.4 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 565 SW: 445 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 315 SW: 240 NW: 230

72H: 2022/02/07 12 UTC: 23.2 S / 41.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 600 SW: 455 NW: 400
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 345 SW: 240 NW: 250

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/08 12 UTC: 25.1 S / 40.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 595 SW: 500 NW: 455
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 345 SW: 285 NW: 280

120H: 2022/02/09 12 UTC: 28.2 S / 40.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 470 SE: 565 SW: 445 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 335 SW: 285 NW: 230

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.0

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS EVOLVED A BIT WITH A
BETTER AND BETTER DEFINED EYE, AND MORE CIRCULAR IN INFRARED IMAGES,
TRANSLATING A BEGINNING OF REINTENSIFICATION IN CONNECTION WITH THE
RESUMPTION OF A MORE FRANK MOVEMENT.
IN THESE CIRCUMSTANCES, WE CAN DEFINE A DVORAK ANALYSIS WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE, LEAVING AN ESTIMATE OF THE AVERAGE WINDS OVER 10 MINUTES AT
100KT.

BATSIRAI REMAINS MAINLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AND HAS RESUMED A MORE DIRECT MOVEMENT: IT IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE
MASCAREIGNES AND IS MOVING ON A TRAJECTORY IN A GENERAL WESTERLY
DIRECTION TOWARDS MADAGASCAR.
A LANDING IS PLANNED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON THE MALAGASY COAST,
BETWEEN VATOMANDRY AND MANANJARY WITH AN UNCERTAINTY OF ABOUT 100KM
ON THE IMPACT AREA. ON SUNDAY, BATSIRAI WILL EMERGE, WEAKENED, IN THE
SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. IT WILL CURVE ITS TRAJECTORY IN THE
SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, AT A DISTANCE TO BE SPECIFIED, BEFORE
CURVING ITS TRAJECTORY MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH AT THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK BECAUSE OF THE WEAKENING AND THE SHIFT TOWARDS THE EAST OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE DIFFERENT GUIDELINES SEEM TO CONFIRM THIS
SCENARIO WHICH KEEPS THE SYSTEM AWAY FROM THE MOZAMBIQUE LAND.

BATSIRAI IS CURRENTLY IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNTIL SATURDAY
WITH A VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WEAK SHEARS UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THE RESUMPTION OF ITS MOVEMENT SHOULD ALLOW IT TO REGAIN A GOOD
OCEANIC POTENTIAL AND ALLOW A NEW INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
DURING ITS PATH TOWARDS MADAGASCAR, DURING ITS INTENSIFICATION PHASE,
A NEW CONTRACTION OF THE EYE IS POSSIBLE UNTIL THE LANDING ON
MADAGASCAR POTENTIALLY AT THE STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE (EVEN
AT THE MINIMUM STAGE OF VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE).
IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, AFTER A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING FOLLOWING
ITS PASSAGE OVER LAND, THE SYSTEM COULD AGAIN DEVELOP UNDER FAIRLY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AT LEAST UNTIL MONDAY, BENEFITING FROM A GOOD
POLAR EVACUATION CHANNEL. IN THE LONGER TERM, THE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS (MAINLY SHEAR, AND THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN THE
NORTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM) SHOULD LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AS
IT PLUNGES TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
- MADAGASCAR : BATSIRAI IS A VERY DANGEROUS CYCLONE FOR THE EAST
COAST OF MADAGASCAR, WITH A LANDING EXPECTED ON SATURDAY BETWEEN
MAHANORO AND MANANJARY AT A STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE, (OR
EVEN AT THE MINIMUM STAGE OF VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE), WITH THE
BEGINNING OF THE IMPACTS RAINS AND WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ON THE REGIONS LOCATED SOUTH OF VATOMANDRY. THE RAIN EXPECTED
DURING THE CROSSING OF THE ISLAND COULD BE OF THE ORDER OF 100MM IN
GENERAL ON THE SOUTHERN HALF, BUT WITH NUCLEI OF THE ORDER OF
300/400MM ON THE LITTORAL ZONES IN THE SOUTH OF THE LANDING ZONE AND
ON THE CHAIN OF THE EAST.  THE CYCLONIC SWELL SHOULD REACH THE COAST
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY REACHING HEIGHTS CLOSE TO 7/8M IN THE MOST
PROBABLE HEIGHTS AND MAXIMA WHICH CAN APPROACH 15M.
 A MAXIMUM SURGE OF ABOUT 1M/1M50 OR MORE IS LIKELY NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE LANDING ZONE. THE POPULATIONS CONCERNED ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CYCLONE WITH ATTENTION AND TO FOLLOW THE
INSTRUCTIONS OF THE LOCAL AUTHORITIES.=

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