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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220204160824.CC7551C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 4 Feb 2022 16:08:24 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 041606
TWDEP=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Feb 04 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: Strong high pressure will=20
build in the wake of a cold front that recently moved across the
Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient is tightening between this
building high pressure and the equatorial trough in the eastern=20
Pacific. A cold air mass advecting southward behind the recent=20
Gulf of Mexico is filtering across the Gulf of Tehuantepec=20
region, where sea surface temperatures are quite warm- 26.5-27.0=20
degrees Celsius. Strong to near gale-force N to NE winds have=20
begun to funnel into the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning. As the
gradient tightens further, these winds will rapidly increase to=20
gale-force in just a few hours. These winds will continue to=20
further increase and attain storm-force speeds from late tonight
into Sat. By early Sat evening, winds will diminish back to=20
strong gale-force, then diminish further to below gale-force by=20
Sun afternoon as the culprit tight gradient slackens. Seas with=20
this upcoming event are forecast to peak to around near 21 ft=20
Sat and begin to subside during Sun. Mariners are urged to stay=20
tuned to future forecasts that will highlight details regarding=20
this upcoming event. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast=20
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website=20
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__=
;!!DZ3fjg!vzbg4uRRCFrNkfLvW5jlY6U7_AEZdRzMUvQ378esWGZ9EZuPYstPeG1m1kGrZrRVX=
9offXgE$  for further=20
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...Corrected

A surface trough extends from 06N78W to 05N90W to 06N99W, where
overnight scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to=20
the ITCZ to 08N109W. The ITCZ resumes at 10N125W to 08N132W=20
to 05N135W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 125W-130W, and within 30
nm south of the ITCZ between 125W-127W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec storm-force gap wind event.

Fresh to strong NW winds continue along the Gulf of California=20
with seas to 5 ft. These winds are also funneling across the Baja
California peninsula mountain passages into the Baja offshores=20
where seas are in the 5-7 ft range in northerly swell. Light to=20
gentle winds prevail over the remainder of the forecast waters=20
with 4-5 ft seas.=20

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge of high
pressure across the waters west of Baja California and a surface
trough over Mexico will support fresh to strong NW winds over=20
the Gulf of California through Sat evening. Strong winds will=20
also continue to funnel through the Baja California peninsula=20
mountain passages into the offshore waters during this period.=20
The next gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
will begin this morning, with winds increasing to storm-force=20
late tonight into Sat, then back to strong gale-force on Sat and
diminishing below gale-force Sun afternoon. Gentle to moderate=20
winds will remain elsewhere through Sun.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh gap winds prevail across the Papagayo region as
well as over the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds prevail=20
elsewhere. Seas of 3-5 ft in S to SW swell are noted over the=20
discussion waters.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds in the Papagayo are
expected to reach near gale-force speeds Sat night. Moderate to=20
fresh N winds over the Gulf of Panama will continue through the=20
middle of next week. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will=20
prevail across the Central American and equatorial waters through
Wed. Swell generated from a storm-force gap wind event in the=20
Gulf of Tehuantepec will produce large seas over the Guatemala=20
and El Salvador offshore waters this weekend into early next=20
week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure of 1034 mb is centered north of the area near
37N132W. The pressure gradient between this area of high=20
pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is=20
supporting fresh to strong winds north of the ITCZ to near 25N=20
and west of about 123W. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere=20
north of the ITCZ and west of 115W. Seas over the area of=20
strongest winds are in the 8-10 ft range as revealed by=20
overnight altimeter data passes. Gentle to moderate winds and=20
seas of 5-6 ft are elsewhere.

For the forecast, the area of high pressure will remain north of
the area the next several days. This will maintain an area of=20
fresh to strong NE trades over the waters from 10N to 25N and=20
west of 120W. The winds will start to diminish slowly beginning=20
Mon night into the middle of next week when seas of 8 ft will
begin to subside.=20

$$
Aguirre


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