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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And/south 
Message-ID: <20220204180918.BBFC01C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 4 Feb 2022 18:09:18 +0000
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Reply-To: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
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ABPW10 PGTW 041830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR/HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND/SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/041830Z-050600ZFEB2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
17.7S 152.1E, APPROXIMATELY 695 NM WEST OF NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 04/1130Z ASCAT-C PASS
REVEALED A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BEGINNING TO FORM NEAR 17.7S,
152.1E ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING WEST-NORTHWEST TO
EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CAPE OF YORK AND THE CORAL SEA,
ACCOMPANIED BY FRAGMENTED CONVECTION NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTER. THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, JUST SOUTH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS,
PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS, AND THE
DISTURBANCE IS EMBEDDED IN A BELT OF DEEP MID-LEVEL MOISTURE.
NUMERICAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT SOME DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE GETS ENTRAINED INTO
THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE (SPCZ). THIS ZONE WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY, AS A COMPLEX ENVIRONMENT COULD LEAD TO MULTIPLE
CIRCULATIONS FORMING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY WITHIN THE SPCZ IN THE
GENERAL VICINITY OF NEW CALEDONIA, VANUATU, FIJI, AND TONGA DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE CHANCES OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED INVEST 92P AS A LOW IN PARA 2.B.
(1).//
NNNN


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