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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Moderate Tropical Storm 3 (cliff) 
Message-ID: <20220204193353.EEA2C1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 4 Feb 2022 19:33:53 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 041900
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/3/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (CLIFF)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/04 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.7 S / 83.5 E
(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 405 SW: 480 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 335 SW: 260 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/05 06 UTC: 19.2 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 415 SW: 415 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 250 SW: 185 NW: 100

24H: 2022/02/05 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 435 SW: 415 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 260 SW: 185 NW: 100

36H: 2022/02/06 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 79.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 445 SW: 415 NW: 140

48H: 2022/02/06 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 77.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

60H: 2022/02/07 06 UTC: 22.7 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

72H: 2022/02/07 18 UTC: 23.6 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0-

DURING THE LAST 6 TO 12 HOURS, CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE LOW'S CENTER, EVOLVING INTO A CURVED BAND PATTERN. THE 0759Z
AMSR2 AND 1303Z SSMIS PASSES CONFIRM THIS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION. THE
1626Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A WIND AXIS REACHING UP TO 40KT IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03-20212022 HAS THUS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM AND NAMED CLIFF AT 1430UTC BY
MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. A COMPROMISE BETWEEN DVORAK
SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS (DT BETWEEN 2.5 AND 3.0 BASED ON A CURVED BAND
PATTERN) AND ASCAT MEASUREMENTS ENABLES US TO ESTIMATE CLIFF'S
MAXIMUM WINDS AT 40KT, LOCATED IN ITS SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

CLIFF IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARD IN THE SHORT TERM, THEN
WILL MOVE MORE FRANKLY TO THE SOUTH-WEST TO WEST-SOUTH-WEST WHILE
ACCELERATING IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STEERING
FLOWS GENERATED BY SEVERAL RIDGES SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM ON ITS
NORTH-EAST, SOUTH-EAST AND SOUTH SECTORS. ITS TRACK LEAVES IT FAR
FROM INHABITED LANDS.

THE CURRENT WINDOW OF INTENSIFICATION ASSOCIATED AMONG OTHER THINGS
WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING JET, AND WHICH
ALLOWED TROPICAL STORM CLIFF TO FORM, SHOULD CLOSE FAIRLY QUICKLY.
FROM THIS SATURDAY ONWARDS, INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD
FORCE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR FROM THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND
SHOULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DURABLY.=

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