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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Intense Tropical Cyclone 2 (batsirai) 
Message-ID: <20220204201018.7C9411C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 4 Feb 2022 20:10:18 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 041934
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 39/2/20212022
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/04 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.6 S / 52.0 E
(NINETEEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 934 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 665 SW: 520 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 295 SW: 295 NW: 260
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/05 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 50.3 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 600 SW: 325 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 325 SW: 220 NW: 215
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75

24H: 2022/02/05 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 48.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 455 SW: 150 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 230 SW: 100 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 95 SW: 45 NW: 55

36H: 2022/02/06 06 UTC: 21.3 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 545 SW: 390 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 295 SW: 205 NW: 185

48H: 2022/02/06 18 UTC: 22.1 S / 42.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 490 SW: 465 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 270 SW: 260 NW: 220

60H: 2022/02/07 06 UTC: 22.7 S / 41.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 545 SW: 315 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 305 SW: 155 NW: 220

72H: 2022/02/07 18 UTC: 23.7 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 630 SW: 435 NW: 390
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 350 SW: 260 NW: 260

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/08 18 UTC: 25.8 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 655 SW: 465 NW: 435
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 380 SW: 285 NW: 280
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 35

120H: 2022/02/09 18 UTC: 29.2 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 595 SW: 370 NW: 360
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 350 SW: 250 NW: 240

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.0

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, BATSIRAI'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS REMAINED ALMOST
STATIONARY, WITH A VERY WELL DEFINED AND CIRCULAR EYE. THE 1243Z
SSMIS PASS SHOWS A WELL CONSTITUTED EYEWALL DESPITE A SLIGHT WEAKNESS
ON ITS WEST SIDE. A 1502Z SAR PASS HAS MEASURED MAXIMUM WINDS UP TO
104KT IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AND MORE GENERALLY AROUND 90 TO
100KT. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS REMAINS STABLE AND
CLOSE TO 6.0. BATSIRAI'S INTENSITY IS THUS LEFT STATIONARY AT 1OOKT.
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE EYEWALL TRACKED OVER BUOY 1401821 WHICH
MEASURED A PRESSURE OF 956.6 HPA AT 14UTC (ABOUT 20NM SOUTH OF THE
CYCLONE'S CENTER), WHICH REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE ESTIMATE OF A
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 934 HPA, DESPITE A CERTAIN MARGIN OF ERROR.

BATSIRAI REMAINS MAINLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AND HAS RESUMED A MORE STRAIGHTFORWARD MOVEMENT: IT IS MOVING ON A
GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS MADAGASCAR. LANDFALL IS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON THE MALAGASY COAST, BETWEEN
VATOMANDRY AND MANANJARY WITH AN UNCERTAINTY OF ABOUT 100KM ON THE
IMPACT AREA. ON SUNDAY EVENING, BATSIRAI WILL EMERGE, WEAKENED, IN
THE SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. IT WILL CURVE ITS TRACK ALONG
THE SOUTH-EAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, AT A DISTANCE WHICH REMAINS TO BE
SPECIFIED, BEFORE CURVING MORE SOUTHWARDLY EARLY NEXT WEEK BECAUSE OF
THE WEAKENING AND EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
DETERMINIST AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO CONFIRM THIS SCENARIO
WHICH KEEPS THE SYSTEM AWAY FROM MOZAMBIQUE.

BATSIRAI IS IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNTIL SATURDAY WITH VERY
GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WEAK WIND SHEAR UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THE RESUMPTION OF ITS MOVEMENT SHOULD ALLOW IT TO REGAIN A
GOOD OCEANIC POTENTIAL AND ALLOW A NEW INTENSIFICATION UNTIL LANDFALL
POTENTIALLY AT THE STAGE OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE (MINIMUM
STAGE OF A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE CAN'T BE RULED OUT). IN THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, AFTER SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE
OVERLAND, THE SYSTEM COULD AGAIN DEVELOP IN RATHER FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS AT LEAST UNTIL MONDAY, TAKING ADVANTAGE OF A GOOD POLAR
EVACUATION CHANNEL. IN THE LONGER TERM, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
(MAINLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR IN THE NORTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM) SHOULD
LIMIT THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
LATITUDES.

IMPACTS ON MADAGASCAR :
BATSIRAI IS A VERY DANGEROUS CYCLONE FOR THE EAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR, WITH A LANDFALL EXPECTED ON SATURDAY BETWEEN MAHANORO AND
MANANJARY AT AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE (MINIMAL STAGE OF VERY
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE NOT COMPLETELY RULED OUT), WITH THE
BEGINNING OF RAIN AND WIND IMPACTS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ON REGIONS
LOCATED SOUTH OF VATOMANDRY. EXTREME AND DESTRUCTIVE GUSTS UP TO 200
TO 250 KM/H ARE LIKELY IN THE IMPACT AREA ON SATURDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL
EXPECTED DURING THE CROSSING OF THE ISLAND COULD BE OF THE ORDER OF
100MM IN GENERAL ON THE SOUTHERN HALF, BUT WITH LOCAL AREAS REACHING
300/500MM ON THE COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF THE LANDFALL AREA AND ON
NEARBY MOUNTAINOUS CHAINS. THE CYCLONIC SWELL SHOULD REACH HEIGHTS
CLOSE TO 7/8M ON AVERAGE WITH MAXIMA NEAR 15M. A MAXIMUM SURGE OF 1
TO 2 METERS IS LIKELY NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE LANDFALL AREA.
POPULATIONS ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF LOCAL
AUTHORITIES.=

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