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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Pacific SE: Tropical Disturbance Summary
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
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Date: Fri, 4 Feb 2022 23:07:05 +0000
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737 
WWPS21 NFFN 042100
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 042306 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD07F CENTER [1000HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 21.4S
166.2E AT 041800UTC. TD07F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON
HIMAWARI VIS/IR/EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

CONVECTION FLARING FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TO SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OF SUPPOSED LLCC. ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. SYSTEM LIES TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
SST AROUND 29 DEGREE CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

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NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.


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