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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Moderate Tropical Storm 3 (cliff) 
Message-ID: <20220205013214.DF3E71C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 5 Feb 2022 01:32:14 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 050126
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/3/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (CLIFF)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/05 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.1 S / 83.3 E
(NINETEEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 465 SW: 405 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 315 SW: 260 NW: 95

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/05 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 82.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 315 SW: 470 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 195 NW: 0

24H: 2022/02/06 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 260 SW: 350 NW: 0

36H: 2022/02/06 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 78.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER

48H: 2022/02/07 00 UTC: 21.3 S / 76.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER

60H: 2022/02/07 12 UTC: 22.0 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER

72H: 2022/02/08 00 UTC: 22.9 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/09 00 UTC: 24.3 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER

120H: 2022/02/10 00 UTC: 24.3 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5;CI=3.0-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, CLIFF'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED AND
THE BANDING FEATURES HAVE ALMOST GONE AS CONVECTION IS BEING CLEARLY
OFFSET SOUTHWARD UNDER THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING NORTHERLY WIND
SHEAR. INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40KT BECAUSE OF THE CIRCULATION'S INERTIA
BUT SHOULD SOON DECREASE.

CLIFF IS MOVING SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH-WESTWARD THIS SATURDAY THEN WILL
MOVE MORE FRANKLY TO THE WEST-SOUTH-WEST WHILE ACCELERATING IN THE
NEXT FEW DAYS UNDER THE COMBINED INFLUENCES OF STEERING FLOWS
GENERATED BY SEVERAL RIDGES SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM ON ITS EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN SECTORS. THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL END UP BEING
THE MAIN DRIVER NEXT WEEK AS THE SYSTEM SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENS. ITS
FORECAST LEAVES IT FAR FROM FROM INHABITED LANDS.

THE SHORT-LIVED WINDOW OF INTENSIFICATION WHICH ALLOWED TROPICAL
STORM CLIFF TO FORM SHOULD CLOSE FAIRLY QUICKLY. FROM THIS SATURDAY
ONWARDS, INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD FORCE INTRUSION OF DRY
AIR FROM THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND SHOULD WEAKEN IT DURABLY.
A REMNANT LOW SHOULD PERSIST NEXT WEEK, WITH REMAINING 20/25KT WINDS
IN ITS SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE BY GRADIENT EFFECT.=

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