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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Intense Tropical Cyclone 2 (batsirai) 
Message-ID: <20220205021135.912441C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 5 Feb 2022 02:11:35 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 050130
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 40/2/20212022
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/05 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.9 S / 51.3 E
(NINETEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 935 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 31 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 650 SW: 465 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 315 SW: 295 NW: 260
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 170 NW: 150
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 95

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/05 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 49.3 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 555 SW: 250 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 305 SW: 175 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 75

24H: 2022/02/06 00 UTC: 20.9 S / 46.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 470 SW: 150 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 250 SW: 120 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 100 NW: 35

36H: 2022/02/06 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 43.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 555 SW: 425 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 305 SW: 260 NW: 175

48H: 2022/02/07 00 UTC: 22.5 S / 42.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 435 SW: 315 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 240 SW: 175 NW: 215

60H: 2022/02/07 12 UTC: 23.2 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 565 SW: 415 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 325 SW: 240 NW: 215

72H: 2022/02/08 00 UTC: 24.1 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 630 SW: 415 NW: 380
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 370 SW: 260 NW: 260

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/09 00 UTC: 26.5 S / 40.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 630 SW: 415 NW: 415
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 380 SW: 280 NW: 280

120H: 2022/02/10 00 UTC: 30.5 S / 41.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 555 SE: 535 SW: 325 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 305 SE: 345 SW: 195 NW: 240

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.5+;CI=6.0

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, BATSIRAI'S EYE PATTERN HAS SLIGHTLY
DETERIORATED, ALTHOUGH STILL WELL-DEFINED AND CIRCULAR, BUT WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER CLOUD TOPS, LEADING TO A 6-HOUR AVERAGED DT AROUND
5.5+. THIS SLIGHT DETERIORATION WAS ALSO SUGGESTED BY THE 1842Z GMI
MICRO-WAVE PASS SHOWING A WEAKER EYEWALL ON ITS NORTHWESTERN SECTOR.
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 100KT BY INERTIA AND IN LINE WITH OBJECTIVE
GUIDANCE SUCH AS SATCON AND ADT.

BATSIRAI IS MOVING ON A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK TOWARDS THE MALAGASY
COAST AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SPEED THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED. THIS SLOWER
MOVEMENT GIVES TIME TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO SHIFT A BIT MORE
EASTWARD AND INDUCES A BIT MORE SOUTHWARD DIP THAN IN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. LANDFALL ON MADAGASCAR IS FORECAST THIS SATURDAY BETWEEN
THE END OF THE AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY EVENING ON THE VATOVAVY REGION.
ON SUNDAY EVENING, BATSIRAI WILL EMERGE, MUCH WEAKER, IN THE SOUTH OF
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. IT WILL CURVE ITS TRACK SOUTH-WESTWARD THEN
SOUTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK BECAUSE OF THE WEAKENING AND THE SHIFT
TOWARDS THE EAST OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH
FROM THE SOUTH-WEST.

BATSIRAI IS IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THIS SATURDAY WITH VERY
GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WEAK WIND SHEAR UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. ITS FASTER MOVEMENT THAN YESTERDAY SHOULD ALLOW IT TO BENEFIT
FROM GOOD OCEANIC POTENTIAL AND ALLOW NEW INTENSIFICATION UNTIL
LANDFALL POTENTIALLY AT THE STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, AFTER SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE
OVER LAND, THE SYSTEM COULD AGAIN DEVELOP IN FAIRLY CONDUCIVE
CONDITIONS AT LEAST UNTIL MONDAY, BENEFITING FROM GOOD POLAR OUTFLOW
CHANNEL. IN THE LONGER TERM, LESS CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
(INCREASING WIND SHEAR, PRESENCE OF DRY AIR TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
SYSTEM, LOWER OCEANIC POTENTIAL) SHOULD LIMIT THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY
WHILE IT DIVES TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES WITH A PROBABLE
POST-TROPICAL TRANSITION AROUND MID-WEEK BY INTERACTION WITH A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.

EXPECTED IMPACTS ON MADAGASCAR :
BATSIRAI IS A VERY DANGEROUS CYCLONE FOR THE EAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR, WITH LANDFALL EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AS AN INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE VATOVAVY REGION NEAR NOSY VARIKA AND NORTH
OF MANANJARY, BUT WITH AN UNCERTAINTY OF 50 TO 100KM ON THE IMPACT
AREA. RAIN, WIND AND HIGH SURF IMPACTS WILL START IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL, EXTREME AND DESTRUCTIVE GUSTS UP TO
200 TO 250 KM/H ARE LIKELY IN THE IMPACT AREA. OFFSHORE WAVES COULD
REACH 10 TO 15 METERS AND A SURGE OF 1 TO 2 METERS IS LIKELY NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE LANDFALL AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED DURING THE
CROSSING OF THE ISLAND COULD BE AROUND 100MM IN GENERAL OVER SOME
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MADAGASCAR BUT WITH LOCAL AREAS
REACHING UP TO 300/500MM NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA. POPULATIONS ARE
INVITED TO BE VERY CAREFUL AND TO FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
AUTHORITIES.=

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