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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And 
Message-ID: <20220205060829.9D1241C0087@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 5 Feb 2022 06:08:29 +0000
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Reply-To: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
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ABPW10 PGTW 050600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/050600Z-060600ZFEB2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.7S 152.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.7S 153.2E, APPROXIMATELY
205 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED, DISORGANIZED
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEST-NORTHWEST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST
ORIENTED FRONTAL SYSTEM. A 050347Z AMSR2 36GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS NO DISCRETE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
HIGHLY DISORGANIZED SHALLOW BANDS OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE CORAL
SEA. THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED WITHIN A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
UNDER MODERATE WESTERLIES WITH BROAD DIFFLUENCE TO THE NORTH
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS
LOW TO MODERATE WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30 DEGREES
CELSIUS. THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD VANUATU ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS
WITHIN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TWO DAYS, NUMERICAL
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT SOME DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AS THE
DISTURBANCE TRACKS UNDER A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.
THIS ZONE WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY, AS A COMPLEX ENVIRONMENT COULD
LEAD TO MULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS FORMING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY WITHIN THE
SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF NEW
CALEDONIA, VANUATU, FIJI, AND TONGA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN


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