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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Intense Tropical Cyclone 2 (batsirai) 
Message-ID: <20220205071800.841421C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 5 Feb 2022 07:18:00 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 050700
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 41/2/20212022
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/05 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.4 S / 50.5 E
(TWENTY    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 945 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 35 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 665 SW: 405 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 335 SW: 280 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 95

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1001 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/05 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 48.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 565 SW: 150 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 305 SW: 120 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 95 SW: 45 NW: 65

24H: 2022/02/06 06 UTC: 21.8 S / 45.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 455 SW: 315 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 240 SW: 185 NW: 175

36H: 2022/02/06 18 UTC: 22.8 S / 42.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 490 SW: 400 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 205

48H: 2022/02/07 06 UTC: 23.4 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 530 SW: 435 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 295 SW: 240 NW: 215

60H: 2022/02/07 18 UTC: 24.4 S / 41.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 665 SW: 380 NW: 360
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 390 SW: 230 NW: 270

72H: 2022/02/08 06 UTC: 25.3 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 630 SW: 445 NW: 380
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 370 SW: 270 NW: 270

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/09 06 UTC: 28.3 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 650 SW: 400 NW: 380
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 390 SW: 285 NW: 270

120H: 2022/02/10 06 UTC: 32.8 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 500 SW: 150 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 315 SW: 120 NW: 230

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5+ CI=5.5

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE BATSIRAI EYE PATTERN HAS DEGRADED MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE LAST 3 HOURS. THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 90
KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES. THIS IS POTENTIALLY GENEROUS CONSIDERING THE SAR PASS OF
LAST NIGHT WHICH ONLY PUT 1-MIN WINDS IN THE ORDER OF 100 KT.

BATSIRAI IS MOVING ON A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK TOWARDS THE MALAGASY
COAST AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SPEED THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED. THIS SLOWER
MOVEMENT ALLOWS TIME FOR THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO SHIFT A LITTLE MORE
TO THE EAST AND THUS INDUCES A SLIGHTLY STEEPER DIVE TO THE SOUTH
THAN IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE LANDFALL ON MADAGASCAR IS PLANNED
THIS SATURDAY BETWEEN THE END OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON THE
VATOVAVY REGION (NEAR NORTH OF MANANJARY). ON SUNDAY EVENING,
BATSIRAI WILL EMERGE, WEAKENED, IN THE SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL. IT WILL CURVE ITS TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-WEST THEN SOUTH AT
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BECAUSE OF THE WEAKENING AND THE SHIFT
TOWARDS THE EAST OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE APPROACH OF A
TROUGH BY THE SOUTH-WEST.

BATSIRAI IS IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THIS SATURDAY WITH VERY
GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WEAK SHEAR UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THE CURRENT WEAKENING PHASE MAY BE RELATED TO DRY AIR
INJECTION FROM THE LAND AREAS OR TO INTERNAL PROCESSES (POTENTIAL
BUILDING OF A SECONDARY CONVECTION RING SUGGESTED BY MICROWAVE
IMAGERY). IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, AFTER A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING
FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE OVER THE LAND, THE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE A RATHER
LARGE STRUCTURE WHICH WILL NOT REALLY ALLOW IT TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
THE RATHER CORRECT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AT FIRST. IN THE LONGER
TERM, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (SHEAR, PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN THE
NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, DECREASING OCEANIC POTENTIAL) SHOULD LIMIT
THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM DURING ITS DIVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
LATITUDES WITH A PROBABLE POST-TROPICAL TRANSITION IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK BY INTERACTION WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.

EXPECTED IMPACTS ON MADAGASCAR :
BATSIRAI IS A VERY DANGEROUS CYCLONE FOR THE EAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR, WITH AN EXPECTED LANDFALL LATE SATURDAY AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE OR INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE VATOVAVY REGION NEAR
NOSY VARIKA AND NORTH OF MANANJARY, BUT WITH AN UNCERTAINTY OF 50 KM
ON THE IMPACT AREA. RAIN AND WIND IMPACTS WILL START IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. AT THE TIME OF LANDING, EXTREME AND DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS UP
TO 200 KM/H OR MORE ARE LIKELY IN THE IMPACT AREA. WAVES RELATED TO
THE CYCLONIC SWELL ARE EXPECTED TO REACH HEIGHTS OF 10 TO 15 METERS
AND A SURGE OF MORE THAN 1 METER IS LIKELY NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
LANDING AREA. THE RAINFALL EXPECTED DURING THE CROSSING OF THE ISLAND
COULD BE OF THE ORDER OF 100 MM IN 24 HOURS IN GENERAL OVER PART OF
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MADAGASCAR BUT WITH LIKELY AREAS IN THE RANGE OF
300/500 MM NEAR THE POINT OF IMPACT. THE CONCERNED POPULATIONS ARE
INVITED TO BE VERY CAREFUL AND TO FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF THE
LOCAL AUTHORITIES.=

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