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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Moderate Tropical Storm 3 (cliff) 
Message-ID: <20220205073135.AC2D41C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 5 Feb 2022 07:31:35 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 050717
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/3/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (CLIFF)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/05 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.3 S / 83.7 E
(NINETEEN    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/3.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 685 SW: 630 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 315 SW: 260 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/05 18 UTC: 20.2 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 280 SW: 425 NW: 0

24H: 2022/02/06 06 UTC: 20.9 S / 79.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 335 SW: 380 NW: 0

36H: 2022/02/06 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 77.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 305 SW: 305 NW: 0

48H: 2022/02/07 06 UTC: 22.1 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 0

60H: 2022/02/07 18 UTC: 22.8 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SW: 280 NW: 0

72H: 2022/02/08 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 295 SW: 345 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/09 06 UTC: 24.8 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0 CI=2.5+

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED
WITH CONVECTION REJECTED FAR TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM HIGHLIGHTING
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 35 KT PRESENT
ONLY IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR.

CLIFF IS MOVING SLOWLY IN THE SHORT TERM, THEN WILL MOVE MORE
STRONGLY TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST, ACCELERATING A LITTLE IN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STEERING FLOWS GENERATED BY SEVERAL
RIDGE AXES IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTORS OF THE SYSTEM, WITH
THE LOW TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TAKING MORE AND MORE CONTROL
OVER THE STEERING FLOW AS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. ITS
TRAJECTORY LEAVES IT FAR FROM THE INHABITED LANDS.

THE WINDOW OF INTENSIFICATION THAT ALLOWED THIS SYSTEM TO REACH THE
CHRISTENING STAGE IS CLOSED, UNDER THE EFFECTS OF THE INCREASE OF THE
NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST SHEAR, FORCING THE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR
PRESENT IN THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN IT DURABLY. A
RESIDUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL NEXT WEEK WITH
WINDS OF 30 KT PRESENT BY GRADIENT EFFECT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.=

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