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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220205092648.60A4C1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 5 Feb 2022 09:26:48 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 050926
TWDEP=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Feb 5 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0950 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: Strong high pressure, anchored
by a 1040 mb high center over northern Mexico is building south=20
across the western Gulf of Mexico in the wake of a cold front=20
that extends from Sarasota, Florida to the Yucatan peninsula. A=20
tight pressure gradient between this building high pressure and=20
the equatorial trough in the eastern Pacific is supporting strong
N to NE gale-force to storm-force winds with seas to 20 ft. Storm-
force winds will continue through this afternoon. By early this
evening, winds will diminish back to strong gale-force, then=20
diminish further to below gale-force by Sun afternoon as the=20
tight gradient slackens. Peak seas to 22 ft are expected today
and early tonight. Mariners are urged to stay tuned to future=20
forecasts that will highlight details regarding this ongoing=20
event. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the=20
National Hurricane Center at website=20
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__=
;!!DZ3fjg!unCjBGBSPrgph9ZCWYDEbqZjMwNUACf54uxf5_iDKK0mTiAuDaYFzNA10HAb4ygYW=
43xdfCw$  for further=20
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 09N84W to 06N94W to 08N104W. The=20
ITCZ begins near 06N106W and continues along 09N122W to 08N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 14N between 114W and
134W, and from 08N to 18N W of 135W.=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec storm-force gap wind event.

Fresh to strong NW winds continue along the Gulf of California=20
with seas to 6 ft. These winds are also funneling across the=20
Baja California peninsula mountain passages into the Baja=20
offshores where seas are 5-6 ft. Light to gentle winds remain=20
over the remainder of the forecast waters. Seas are in the range=20
of 4-5 ft.=20

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge of high
pressure across the waters west of Baja California and a surface
trough over western Mexico will support fresh to strong NW winds
over the Gulf of California through Sat evening. Strong winds=20
will also continue to funnel through the Baja California=20
peninsula mountain passages into the offshore waters during this=20
period. A storm-force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec=20
will begin tonight, continuing through Sat. Strong gale-force N
to NE winds will resume afterwards and diminish below gale-force
Sun afternoon. Gentle to moderate winds will remain elsewhere=20
through Sun.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong NE gap winds are in the Papagayo region, while=20
moderate to fresh N winds are in the Gulf of Panama. Light to=20
gentle winds are elsewhere. Seas of 3-5 ft in S to SW swell are=20
noted over the discussion waters.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds in the Papagayo region=20
are expected to reach near gale-force speeds Sat night. Moderate
N winds in the Gulf of Panama will pulse to fresh speeds at=20
night into the middle part of next week. Elsewhere, light to=20
gentle winds will prevail across the Central American and=20
equatorial waters through Wed. Swell generated from a storm-=20
force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will produce=20
large seas over the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters=20
this weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure of 1035 mb is centered north of the area near=20
37N132W. The pressure gradient between this area of high=20
pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is=20
supporting fresh to strong winds north of the ITCZ to near 25N=20
and west of about 124W. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere=20
north of the ITCZ and west of 115W. Seas over the area of=20
strongest winds are in the 8-12 ft range as revealed by=20
recent altimeter data. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5-6=20
ft are present elsewhere over the area.

For the forecast, the area of high pressure will remain north of
the area the next several days. This will maintain an area of=20
fresh to strong NE trades over the waters from 10N to 25N and=20
west of 120W. The winds will start to diminish slowly beginning=20
Mon night into the middle of next week when seas of 8 ft will
begin to subside.=20

$$
Ramos


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