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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
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Date: Sat, 5 Feb 2022 11:28:32 +0000
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490 
AWIO20 FMEE 051125

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN 
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN 

DATE: 2022/02/05 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


New warning WTIO20 and WTIO30 041/02 issued at 06UTC on the Intense Tropical Cyclone BATSIRAI.

New warning WTIO20 and WTIO30 004/03 issued at 06UTC on the Moderate Tropical Storm CLIFF.

Next warnings issued at 12UTC.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:


The basin is in a monsoon trough (MT) patern over its entire width, with an axis of MT undulating between 12 and 15S. Two tropical depression circulations are nestled within this TM: on the one hand the intense tropical cyclone BATSIRAI located between Mascarene Islands and Madagascar and on the other hand the Moderate Tropical Storm CLIFF located on the eastern part of the basin, centered around 20.1oS / 84.1oE at 0900Z. The convective activity is observed for the most part in the slowing down of the northwesterly flow at the northern edge of the TM, as well as in the convergence of low layers driven by Cyclone BATSARAI approaching the east coast of Madagascar.

Intense Tropical Cyclone BATSIRAI :

Position at 09UTC: 20.6oS / 50oE

Movement : West-south-west at 10kt

Maximum wind averaged over 10min : 90kt

Minimum central pressure : 945hPa
For more information, please refer to bulletins WTIO20 and WTIO30 issued at 06UTC and following.

Moderate Tropical Storm CLIFF :

Position at 09UTC : 20.1oS / 84.1oE

Displacement : South at 8kt

Maximum wind averaged over 10 min : 35kt.

Minimum central pressure : 996 hPa

For more information, refer to bulletins WTIO20 and WTIO30 which will be issued at 12UTC and following.

There is no further risk of moderate tropical storm formation in the basin in the next five days.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%
                                                                                                                                         
The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.


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