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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Filling Up 3 (cliff) 
Message-ID: <20220205123321.1743E1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 5 Feb 2022 12:33:21 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 051232
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/3/20212022
1.A FILLING UP 3 (CLIFF)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/05 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.7 S / 83.9 E
(TWENTY    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 685 SW: 610 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 390 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/06 00 UTC: 21.1 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 315 SW: 390 NW: 95

24H: 2022/02/06 12 UTC: 21.5 S / 79.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 270 SW: 350 NW: 0

36H: 2022/02/07 00 UTC: 22.1 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

48H: 2022/02/07 12 UTC: 22.7 S / 74.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

60H: 2022/02/08 00 UTC: 23.2 S / 72.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

72H: 2022/02/08 12 UTC: 23.5 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0 CI=2.5

SINCE THIS MORNING, THE CENTER HAS BECOME MORE AND MORE EXPOSED WITH
A RESIDUAL CONVECTION PRESENT ONLY IN THE SYNOPTIC CONVERGENCE
LOCATED IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. WINDS ARE STILL ESTIMATED TO
REACH 35 KT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE BUT ONLY BY GRADIENT EFFECT
WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE.

THE CENTER, NOW CLEARLY VISIBLE, HAS BEEN RELOCATED FURTHER EAST.
CLIFF IS MOVING IN A GENERAL SOUTHWARD DIRECTION UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A RIDGE OF LOW TO MID-TROPOSPHERE PRESENT TO THE EAST. DURING THE
NIGHT, IT IS THE LOW LEVELS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS IN THE SOUTH
WHICH TAKES AGAIN THE HAND ON THE DIRECTING FLOW TAKING THE SYSTEM ON
A GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK.

THE WINDOW OF INTENSIFICATION THAT ALLOWED THIS SYSTEM TO REACH THE
CHRISTENING STAGE IS NOW DEFINITIVELY CLOSED. THE DRY MID-TROPOSPHERE
AIR DRIVEN BY THE TEMPORARY INCREASE IN SHEAR LAST NIGHT IS SETTLING
IN OVER THE CENTER AND SHOULD THWART ANY REINTENSIFICATION EFFORTS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

A RESIDUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL NEXT WEEK WITH
WINDS OF 30 KT THEN 25/30 KT PRESENT BY GRADIENT EFFECT IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

THIS IS THE LAST WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION. IT
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE AWIO20
DAILY BULLETIN.=

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