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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Intense Tropical Cyclone 2 (batsirai) 
Message-ID: <20220205131619.2657E1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 5 Feb 2022 13:16:19 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 051300
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 42/2/20212022
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/05 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.8 S / 49.4 E
(TWENTY    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 945 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 665 SW: 405 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 335 SW: 280 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 160 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 100

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1001 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/06 00 UTC: 21.4 S / 46.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 425 SW: 110 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 220 SW: 85 NW: 155

24H: 2022/02/06 12 UTC: 22.7 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 480 SW: 350 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 270 SW: 220 NW: 175

36H: 2022/02/07 00 UTC: 23.4 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 510 SW: 400 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 285 SW: 215 NW: 195

48H: 2022/02/07 12 UTC: 24.1 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 610 SW: 445 NW: 390
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 350 SW: 260 NW: 280

60H: 2022/02/08 00 UTC: 25.1 S / 41.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 585 SW: 405 NW: 390
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 335 SW: 270 NW: 280

72H: 2022/02/08 12 UTC: 26.5 S / 41.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 595 SW: 415 NW: 425
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 350 SW: 260 NW: 285

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/09 12 UTC: 30.4 S / 42.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 585 SW: 175 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 360 SW: 150 NW: 205

120H: 2022/02/10 12 UTC: 34.1 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 400 SW: 260 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 270 SW: 195 NW: 220

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0 CI=5.5

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE BATSIRAI EYE CONFIGURATION HAS IMPROVED
A BIT WITH COOLER CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING AN EYE THAT REMAINS WELL
DEFINED IN VIS/IR IMAGERY. AMSR2 IMAGERY REVEALS A WIDER RADIUS OF
MAXIMUM WIND RAY THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED. THE INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED
IN COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE (A LITTLE HIGHER), THE
SMAP PASS AROUND 00Z THIS MORNING AT 94 KT AND THE SUBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES.

BATSIRAI IS MOVING ON A WEST-SOUTH-WEST TRACK TOWARDS THE MALAGASY
COAST AT A FASTER SPEED. THE LANDFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ON THE VATOVAVY REGION (NEAR THE NORTH OF MANANJARY). ON SUNDAY
EVENING, BATSIRAI WILL EMERGE, WEAKENED, IN THE SOUTH OF THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. IT WILL CURVE ITS TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-WEST
THEN SOUTH AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BECAUSE OF THE WEAKENING AND
THE SHIFT TOWARDS THE EAST OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE APPROACH
OF A TROUGH BY THE SOUTH-WEST.

BATSIRAI IS IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THIS SATURDAY WITH A VERY
GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WEAK SHEAR UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THE INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN MORE OR LESS UNCHANGED UNTIL
LANDING. IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, AFTER A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING
FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE OVER LAND, THE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE A RATHER
LARGE STRUCTURE WHICH WILL NOT REALLY ALLOW IT TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
THE FAIRLY GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AT FIRST. IN THE LONGER
TERM, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (SHEAR, PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN THE
NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, DECREASING OCEANIC POTENTIAL) SHOULD LIMIT
THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM DURING ITS DIVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
LATITUDES WITH A PROBABLE POST-TROPICAL TRANSITION IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK BY INTERACTION WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.

EXPECTED IMPACTS ON MADAGASCAR :
BATSIRAI IS A VERY DANGEROUS CYCLONE FOR THE EAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR, WITH A LANDFALL EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS AN
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE VATOVAVY REGION NEAR NOSY VARIKA
AND NORTH OF MANANJARY. AT THE TIME OF THE LANDING, EXTREME AND
DESTRUCTIVE GUSTS UP TO 200 KM/H OR MORE ARE LIKELY IN THE IMPACT
AREA. WAVES RELATED TO THE CYCLONIC SWELL ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
HEIGHTS OF 10 TO 15 METERS AND A SURGE OF MORE THAN 1 METER IS LIKELY
NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE LANDING AREA WITH SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING
IN THE MANANJARY AREA AND SOUTH OF THE IMPACT ZONE. THE RAINFALL
EXPECTED DURING THE CROSSING OF THE ISLAND COULD BE OF THE ORDER OF
100 MM IN 24 HOURS IN GENERAL OVER PART OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
MADAGASCAR BUT WITH AMOUNTS OF THE ORDER OF 300/500 MM ON THE
HIGHLANDS LOCATED NEAR THE IMPACT POINT.  THE POPULATIONS CONCERNED
ARE INVITED TO BE VERY CAREFUL AND TO FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF THE
LOCAL AUTHORITIES.=

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