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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220205160218.C7F551C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 5 Feb 2022 16:02:18 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 051600
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Feb 5 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: Strong high pressure, anchored
by a 1038 mb high center over northern Mexico, extends over the=20
western Gulf of Mexico. A tight pressure gradient between the=20
high pressure and the equatorial trough in the eastern Pacific is
supporting strong N to NE gale- force to storm-force winds with=20
seas to 20 ft. Storm- force winds will continue through this=20
afternoon and then diminish to strong gale- force. Expect winds=20
to drop below gale- force by Sun afternoon as the pressure=20
gradient slackens. Seas will stay above 20 ft through tonight.=20
Mariners are urged to stay tuned to future forecasts that will=20
highlight details regarding this ongoing event. Please read the=20
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
at website https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSF=
EP2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!sXumITXksSgZ3-KjTLBt3cviEVhsehVdz4djKD6hsz2y72bmRcMbfn=
W9LUpITT93KrbyxOz4$  for=20
further details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from northern Colombia near 06N78W to
04N93W. The ITCZ continues from 04N93W to 07N108W to 09N118W,
then continues W of a trough near 10N124W to beyond 09N140W.=20
Scattered moderate convection is noted along the trough near 122W
and the ITCZ from 08N to 16N between 114W and beyond 140W.=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
an ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec storm-force gap wind event.

Fresh to strong NW winds continue along the Gulf of California=20
with seas to 8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are noted
across the Baja California offshores with seas 4-6 ft. Light to=20
gentle winds remain over the remainder of the forecast waters=20
with seas 4-6 ft. Showers are streaming across the offshores of=20
Jalisco and Nayarit.=20

For the forecast, the storm-force wind gap event in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec will continue through late this afternoon with gale-
force winds continuing through Sun afternoon. Meanwhile, the=20
fresh to strong winds across the Gulf of California will diminish
this afternoon. Tonight and into Sun, expect gentle to moderate=20
winds to prevail across the region. Moderate to fresh winds can=20
be expected for the Gulf of California and off the coast of=20
Jalisco Mon into Tue. The next gale force gap winds for the=20
Tehuantepec region is forecast to begin Tue.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong NE gap winds are in the Papagayo region with seas
4-6 ft. Fresh N winds are noted in the Gulf of Panama with seas
to 5 ft. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere. Seas of 3-5 ft in=20
S to SW swell are noted outside of the Gulfs of Papagayo and
Panama. Showers are moving south of a trough extending across the
area, from 02N to 05N between 78W and 87W.=20

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds in the Papagayo region=20
are expected to reach near gale-force speeds tonight. Strong
winds will continue across the area through Sun night. Moderate N
winds in the Gulf of Panama will pulse to fresh speeds at night=20
through at least Wed. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will=20
prevail across the Central American and equatorial waters through
Wed. Swell generated from an ongoing storm-force gap wind event=20
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will produce large seas over the=20
Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters this weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

Ridging from a 1037 mb high north of the area extends across the
northern portions of the forecast waters. Fresh E to NE winds=20
continue north of the ITCZ to 26N and W of 124W. Seas are 8-10 ft
within N to NE swell. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5-6=20
ft are present elsewhere over the area.=20

For the forecast, the area of high pressure will remain north of
the area the next several days. This will maintain an area of=20
fresh to locally strong NE trades over the waters from 10N to=20
25N and west of 120W. The winds will start to diminish slowly=20
by Tue through midweek. Seas will subside below 8 ft by Wed.

$$
AReinhart


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