Received-SPF: pass (google.com: domain of wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu designates 148.163.135.28 as permitted sender) client-ip=148.163.135.28;
From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean) 
Message-ID: <20220205181153.37B561C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 5 Feb 2022 18:11:53 +0000
MIME-Version: 1.0
Reply-To: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Errors-to: wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu
Precedence: list
Precedence: bulk
Content-type: multipart/mixed; boundary="----------=_1644084719-49151-5463"

This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1644084719-49151-5463
Content-Type: text/plain

WTIO30 FMEE 051810 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 43/2/20212022
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/05 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.9 S / 48.3 E
(TWENTY    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 944 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 665 SW: 405 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 335 SW: 280 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 160 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 100

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1001 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/06 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 45.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 650 SW: 325 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 370 SW: 185 NW: 195

24H: 2022/02/06 18 UTC: 23.0 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 470 SW: 390 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 270 SW: 250 NW: 205

36H: 2022/02/07 06 UTC: 23.9 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 535 SW: 445 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 305 SW: 260 NW: 220

48H: 2022/02/07 18 UTC: 24.9 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 620 SW: 405 NW: 400
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 360 SW: 260 NW: 280

60H: 2022/02/08 06 UTC: 26.0 S / 41.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 595 SW: 425 NW: 405
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 350 SW: 285 NW: 280

72H: 2022/02/08 18 UTC: 27.4 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 665 SW: 425 NW: 400
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 400 SW: 260 NW: 280

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/09 18 UTC: 31.5 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 535 SE: 545 SW: 325 NW: 360
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 345 SW: 220 NW: 250

120H: 2022/02/10 18 UTC: 34.5 S / 46.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 390 SW: 165 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 270 SW: 140 NW: 175

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0+ CI=5.5

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE BATSIRAI EYE CONFIGURATION HAS CHANGED
LITTLE, WITH STILL VERY COLD TOPS SURROUNDING AN EYE REMAINING WELL
DEFINED IN VIS/IR IMAGERY. SSMIS IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE MAXIMUM WIND
RADIUS. THE INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED IN COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE (A BIT HIGHER), THE SMAP PASS AROUND 00Z THIS
MORNING AT 94 KT AND THE SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES.

BATSIRAI IS MOVING ON A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRAJECTORY TOWARD THE
MADAGASCAR COAST AT A FASTER SPEED. THE LANDING ON MADAGASCAR IS IN
PROGRESS WITH THE EYE ALMOST COMPLETELY ENTERED ON THE COAST NEAR THE
NORTH OF MANANJARY.
ON SUNDAY EVENING, BATSIRAI WILL EMERGE, WEAKENED, IN THE SOUTH OF
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. IT WILL CURVE ITS TRACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTH-WEST THEN SOUTH AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BECAUSE OF THE
WEAKENING AND THE SHIFT TOWARDS THE EAST OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH BY THE SOUTH-WEST.

THE INTENSITY THUS REMAINED MORE OR LESS UNCHANGED BEFORE THE
LANDING.  IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, AFTER A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING
FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE OVER LAND, THE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE A RATHER
LARGE STRUCTURE WHICH WILL NOT REALLY ALLOW IT TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
THE FAIRLY GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AT FIRST. IN THE LONGER
TERM, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (SHEAR, PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN THE
NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, DECREASING OCEANIC POTENTIAL) SHOULD LIMIT
THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM DURING ITS DIVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
LATITUDES WITH A PROBABLE POST-TROPICAL TRANSITION IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK BY INTERACTION WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.

EXPECTED IMPACTS ON MADAGASCAR :
BATSIRAI IS A VERY DANGEROUS CYCLONE FOR THE EAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR, WITH A LANDFALL GOING ON BETWEEN NOSY VARIKA AND
MANANJARY. EXTREME AND DESTRUCTIVE GUSTS UP TO 200 KM/H OR MORE ARE
LIKELY IN THE IMPACT AREA. WAVES RELATED TO THE CYCLONIC SWELL ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH HEIGHTS OF 10 TO 15 METERS AND A SURGE OF MORE THAN
1 METER IS LIKELY NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE LANDING AREA WITH SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOODING IN THE MANANJARY AREA AND SOUTH OF THE IMPACT ZONE.
THE RAINFALL EXPECTED DURING THE CROSSING OF THE ISLAND COULD BE OF
THE ORDER OF 100 MM IN 24 HOURS IN GENERAL OVER PART OF THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF MADAGASCAR BUT WITH AMOUNTS OF THE ORDER OF 300/500 MM ON THE
HIGHLANDS LOCATED NEAR THE IMPACT POINT.  THE POPULATIONS CONCERNED
ARE INVITED TO BE VERY CAREFUL AND TO FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF THE
LOCAL AUTHORITIES.=

------------=_1644084719-49151-5463
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = = == = =
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-TROPL.
------------=_1644084719-49151-5463--