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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220205220300.859F11C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 5 Feb 2022 22:03:00 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 052202
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Feb 5 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: Strong high pressure, anchored
by a 1038 mb high center over northern Mexico, extends over the=20
western Gulf of Mexico. A tight pressure gradient between the=20
high pressure and the equatorial trough in the eastern Pacific is
supporting storm-force winds with seas to 21 ft. Winds are
expected to drop to strong gale-force by this evening and
persist through late Sun morning. Seas will stay near 20 ft=20
through tonight. Mariners are urged to stay tuned to future=20
forecasts that will highlight details regarding this ongoing=20
event. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the=20
National Hurricane Center at website=20
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__=
;!!DZ3fjg!tDdjG4bsYFvb9XWa2l2IGI5LaZF66rkdSso2Sbyd-zJScp7my5XRdCGNCoAJNgKRY=
8SMRDrB$  for further=20
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from northern Colombia near 06N77W to
03N92W. The ITCZ continues from 03N92W to 07N108W to 09N118W,=20
then continues W of two troughs near 10N136W to beyond 10N140W.=20
Scattered moderate convection is noted along the troughs near=20
122W and 133W in addition to the ITCZ from 08N to 18N between=20
114W and beyond 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
an ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec storm-force gap wind event.

Fresh to strong NW winds continue across the Gulf of California=20
with seas to 6 ft. Moderate winds are noted south of Punta
Eugenia, otherwise light to gentle winds prevail across the rest
of the Mexico offshores. Seas range 4-6 ft. In addition, showers
are streaming across the offshores of Jalisco and Nayarit.=20

For the forecast, the storm-force winds in the Gulf of=20
Tehuantepec will diminish this evening. Gale-force winds are
expected to persist through Sun afternoon. Meanwhile, the fresh=20
to strong winds across the Gulf of California will end by this=20
evening. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the region
tonight into Sun. Moderate to fresh winds can be expected for=20
the Gulf of California and off the coast of Jalisco Mon into Tue.
The next gale force gap winds for the Tehuantepec region is=20
forecast to begin Mon night and continue through Wed morning.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong NE gap winds are in the Papagayo region with seas
4-6 ft. Moderate N winds are noted in the Gulf of Panama with=20
seas to 4 ft. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere. Seas of 2-4=20
ft in S to SW swell are noted outside of the Gulfs of Papagayo=20
and Panama. Showers are moving south of a trough extending across
the area, from 02N to 05N between 79W and 84W.=20

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds in the Papagayo region=20
are expected to reach near gale-force speeds tonight. Strong
winds will persist across the area through Mon morning, and=20
pulse at night Mon night through Thu. Winds will pulse fresh to
locally strong tonight in the Gulf of Panama, then pulse to=20
fresh speeds at night through Thu. Elsewhere, light to gentle=20
winds will prevail across the Central American and equatorial=20
waters through Wed. Swell generated from an ongoing storm-force=20
gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will produce large seas
over the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters this weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

Ridging from a 1037 mb high north of the area extends across the
northern portions of the forecast waters. The pressure gradient
between the high pressure with the lower pressure along the ITCZ
is giving way to fresh to strong winds N of the ITCZ to 26N and=20
W of 123W. Seas are 8-10 ft within N to NE swell. Gentle to=20
moderate winds and seas of 5-6 ft are present elsewhere over the=20
area.=20

For the forecast, the area of high pressure will remain north of
the area the next several days. This will maintain an area of=20
fresh to strong NE trades over the waters from 10N to 25N and=20
west of 120W. The winds will start to diminish slowly by Tue=20
through midweek. Seas will subside below 8 ft by Wed.

$$
AReinhart


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