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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Overland Depression 2 (batsirai) 
Message-ID: <20220206010239.9B6E21C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 6 Feb 2022 01:02:39 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 060056
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 44/2/20212022
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/06 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.9 S / 47.2 E
(TWENTY    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SEVEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 665 SW: 650 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 370 SW: 370 NW: 130

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1001 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/06 12 UTC: 22.6 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 565 SW: 490 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 325 SW: 295 NW: 175

24H: 2022/02/07 00 UTC: 23.5 S / 42.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 555 SW: 435 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 325 SW: 260 NW: 195

36H: 2022/02/07 12 UTC: 24.4 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 565 SW: 285 NW: 360
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 335 SW: 150 NW: 250

48H: 2022/02/08 00 UTC: 25.6 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 585 SW: 415 NW: 400
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 350 SW: 220 NW: 280

60H: 2022/02/08 12 UTC: 26.8 S / 41.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 630 SW: 425 NW: 400
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 380 SW: 260 NW: 280

72H: 2022/02/09 00 UTC: 28.9 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 565 SE: 610 SW: 405 NW: 380
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 380 SW: 280 NW: 270

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/10 00 UTC: 32.6 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 575 SE: 470 SW: 250 NW: 350
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 305 SW: 165 NW: 240

120H: 2022/02/11 00 UTC: 35.0 S / 47.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 270 SW: 140 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
DURING THE LAST HOURS, BATSIRAI HAS LANDED AND MOVED ON THE MALAGASY
EAST COAST NEAR THE NORTH OF MANANJARY.
ON A TRAJECTORY THAT WILL PROGRESSIVELY TAKE THE SOUTH-WEST
DIRECTION, IT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE ON THE CHANNEL AT THE END OF THE
DAY.
ON SUNDAY EVENING, BATSIRAI WILL EMERGE, WEAKENED, IN THE SOUTH OF
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. IT WILL CURVE ITS TRAJECTORY TOWARDS THE
SOUTH-WEST THEN SOUTH AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BECAUSE OF THE
WEAKENING AND THE SHIFT TOWARDS THE EAST OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH BY THE SOUTH-WEST.

IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, AFTER A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING FOLLOWING
ITS PASSAGE OVER LAND, THE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE A RATHER LARGE
STRUCTURE WHICH WILL NOT REALLY ALLOW IT TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE
FAIRLY GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AT FIRST. IN THE LONGER TERM,
THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (SHEAR, PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN THE
NORTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM, DECREASING OCEANIC POTENTIAL) SHOULD LIMIT
THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AS IT PLUNGES TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
LATITUDES WITH A PROBABLE POST-TROPICAL TRANSITION IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK THROUGH INTERACTION WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.


EXPECTED IMPACTS ON MADAGASCAR AND THE SOUTH PART OF THE CHANNEL:
DETERIORATED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER A LARGE SOUTHERN HALF OF
MADAGASCAR, WITH HEAVY RAINS EXCEEDING 100MM OVER THE EPISODE, EVEN
NUCLEI OF 300/500MM OVER THE EAST.
STRONG STORM FORCE WINDS ARE MAINTAINED DURING THE DAY ALONG THE EAST
COAST, AND ARE ALSO QUICKLY ESTABLISHED SOUTH OF CAPE SAINT-VINCENT
ON THE SOUTHWEST COAST. THE EAST SWELL REMAINS MODERATE ON THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY. A BIG SOUTH SWELL IS ESTABLISHING ITSELF
BETWEEN TOLIARA AND CAPE ST-VINCENT ON THE SOUTH-WEST COAST ON SUNDAY
EVENING, THEN A BIG SOUTH-EAST SWELL IS REACHING EUROPA ISLAND ON
MONDAY.=

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