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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Overland Depression 2 (batsirai) 
Message-ID: <20220206071311.3C0091C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 6 Feb 2022 07:13:11 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 060638
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 45/2/20212022
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/06 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.1 S / 45.3 E
(TWENTY TWO    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FIVE    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 16 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 665 SW: 650 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 370 SW: 370 NW: 130

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1001 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/06 18 UTC: 23.5 S / 43.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 480 SW: 360 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 270 SW: 175 NW: 175

24H: 2022/02/07 06 UTC: 23.9 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 520 SW: 335 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 305 SW: 175 NW: 250

36H: 2022/02/07 18 UTC: 24.7 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 575 SW: 455 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 345 SW: 295 NW: 270

48H: 2022/02/08 06 UTC: 26.0 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 595 SW: 435 NW: 390
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 350 SW: 250 NW: 260

60H: 2022/02/08 18 UTC: 27.6 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 545 SW: 400 NW: 400
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 325 SW: 230 NW: 280

72H: 2022/02/09 06 UTC: 30.0 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 535 SE: 595 SW: 455 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 360 SW: 270 NW: 260

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/10 06 UTC: 33.7 S / 44.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 470 SE: 370 SW: 230 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 250 SW: 140 NW: 175

120H: 2022/02/11 06 UTC: 36.6 S / 51.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
AFTER LANDING ON THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR, NEAR MANANJARY,
BATSARAI CONTINUED ON A FAST WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK. ITS PROGRESS OVER
THE MALAGASY LANDS HAS WEAKENED THIS SYSTEM, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
EMERGE IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AT THE END OF THE DAY, A LITTLE
NORTH OF TULEAR. BACK AT SEA, BATSIRAI SHOULD START A TURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-WEST AND THEN THE SOUTH DUE TO THE WEAKENING
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND ITS SHIFT IN THE CENTER OF THE BASIN.
BATSIRAI WILL ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTH-EAST MORE CLEARLY FROM
TUESDAY, FOLLOWING ITS INTERACTION WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
ARRIVING FROM THE WEST.

IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, AFTER A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING FOLLOWING
ITS PASSAGE OVER LAND, THE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE A RATHER LARGE
STRUCTURE WHICH WILL NOT REALLY ALLOW IT TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE
FAIRLY GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AT FIRST. QUICKLY DURING THE
NEXT WEEK, BATSIRAI SHOULD ENCOUNTER UNCONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS FOR AN INTENSIFICATION DURING ITS DIVE TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN LATITUDES: WINDSHEAR ALOT INJECTING PROGRESSIVELY DRY AIR IN
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM, THEN OCEANIC POTENTIAL IN NET
DECREASE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BATSARAI SHOULD START A PROBABLE
POST-TROPICAL TRANSITION IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BY INTERACTION
WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.

EXPECTED IMPACTS ON MADAGASCAR AND THE SOUTH OF THE CHANNEL:
- POOR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER A LARGE SOUTHERN PART OF
MADAGASCAR, BETWEEN MAINTIRANO AND CAPE SAINTE-MARIE, WITH 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE RANGE OF 200 TO 400 MM ON THE EASTERN PLATEAUS
OF THE ISLAND, AND AROUND 100 MM ELSEWHERE. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
MAINTAINED DURING THE DAY ALONG THE EAST COAST, AND FOLLOWING THE
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM, THEY QUICKLY ESTABLISH THEMSELVES IN THE
SOUTH-WEST OF THE ISLAND, BETWEEN THE CAPE SAINT-MARIE AND THE CAPE
SAINT-VINCENT. THESE WINDS ARE ACCOMPANIED BY VIOLENT GUSTS CLOSE TO
100 KM/H ON THE EAST COAST AND THE FOOTHILLS OF THE HIGHLANDS. THESE
WINDS WILL FADE DURING THE DAY TO APPEAR ON THE SOUTH-WESTERN SIDE OF
THE ISLAND AT THE END OF THE DAY, TO BLOW BETWEEN 80 AND 100 KM/H.
- THE SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL STILL CONCERN THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR
FOR A HEIGHT CLOSE TO 3 METERS, WITH A CLEAR TENDENCY TO WEAKEN
DURING THE DAY. WITH THE DISPLACEMENT OF BATSIRAI THE SEA RISES ON
THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE ISLAND, WITH A SWELL AND A WIND SEA COMBINED
GIVING A TOTAL SEA OF ABOUT 6 METERS AT THE END OF THE DAY SOUTH OF
CAPE SAINT-VINCENT.=

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