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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220206092114.73B3A1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 6 Feb 2022 09:21:14 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 060921
TWDEP=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Feb 6 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0940 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure anchored=20
by a 1027 mb high centered over NE Mexico extends across the=20
Gulf of Mexico. A tight pressure gradient between the high=20
pressure and the equatorial trough in the eastern Pacific is=20
supporting gale-force winds with seas to 20 ft. Winds are=20
expected to drop below gale-force by early this afternoon.=20
However, fresh to strong winds will continue across the=20
Tehuantepec region through Mon evening when the next gale-force=20
gap wind event is forecast to begin. These winds will rapidly=20
reach speeds of 45 kt with seas to 13 ft building to 18 ft on=20
Tue. Winds for this second gap wind event are forecast to drop=20
below gale-force by Wed afternoon. Mariners are urged to stay=20
tuned to future forecasts that will highlight details regarding=20
this ongoing event. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast=20
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website=20
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__=
;!!DZ3fjg!rJeP7FpjKFC90FzCEMp88si9ZDh9EycsUlt0ShdHoDVDoz3RIn0y_OWnGFhtfCye9=
YHsZz5t$  for further=20
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 02N78W to 05N87W to 04N97W. The=20
ITCZ continues from 03N99W to 06N110W to 10N121W. There is no=20
significant convection associated with either the trough/ITCZ.=20
However, there are two surface troughs west of the ITCZ that are=20
generating scattered moderated convection from 10N to 16N between
120W and 137W.=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
an ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gale-force gap wind event.

Moderate to fresh NW winds are along the Gulf of California with
seas of 3-4 ft. Gentle to moderate northerly winds are noted=20
along the Baja California peninsula offshore waters all the way
to the region of Jalisco with seas to 5 ft. Light to gentle=20
variable winds prevail across the rest of the SW Mexican offshores.

For the forecast, gale-force winds are expected to persist in the
Tehuantepec region through Sun afternoon. The moderate to fresh=20
NW winds across the Gulf of California will continue through the=20
middle of next week, increasing to strong speeds again over the=20
northern half of the gulf Mon morning through Mon night. Moderate
to locally fresh winds are expected for the Baja offshores and=20
off the coast of Jalisco through Tue. The next gale-force gap=20
winds for the Tehuantepec region is forecast to begin Mon night=20
and continue through Wed morning.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Strong to near gale-force NE gap winds are in the Papagayo=20
region with seas to 7 ft. Fresh to strong N winds are noted in=20
the Gulf of Panama with seas to 4 ft. Light to gentle variable winds
are elsewhere with seas in the 3-5 ft range.

For the forecast, near gale-force winds in the region of Papagayo
will diminish to fresh to strong speeds on Sun and continue
through Tue when winds will further diminish to moderate to fresh
speeds and continue through Thu. Winds in the Gulf of Panama,=20
are forecast to pulse to fresh speeds at night through Thu.=20
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail across the Central=20
American and equatorial waters through Wed. Swell generated from=20
an ongoing gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec=20
will produce large seas over the Guatemala and El Salvador=20
offshore waters through Sun.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

Ridging from a 1032 mb high north of the area extends across the
northern portions of the forecast waters. The pressure gradient=20
between the high pressure and lower pressure associated with two
surface troughs W of the ITCZ is leading to the continuation of=20
fresh to strong winds roughly from 13N to 25N and W of 120W.
Recent altimeter data show seas of 8-11 ft in this region, which
is under the influence of mixed NE and NW swell. Gentle to=20
moderate winds and seas of 5-6 ft are present elsewhere over the=20
area.=20

For the forecast, the area of high pressure will remain north of
the area the next several days. This will maintain an area of=20
fresh to strong NE trades over the waters from 10N to 25N and=20
west of 120W. The winds will start to diminish slowly by Tue=20
through midweek. Seas will subside below 8 ft by Wed.

$$
Ramos


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