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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
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Date: Sun, 6 Feb 2022 12:32:06 +0000
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694 
AWIO20 FMEE 061230

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2022/02/06 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


Warnings WTIO24 and WTIO30 045/02 issued at 06UTC on overland depression BATSIRAI.

Next warnings issued at 12UTC.

Last warnings WTIO20 and WTIO30 005/03 issued at 12UTC yesterday on filling up low CLIFF.


PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:


The convective activity over the basin is mainly present within the two low-level clockwise circulations over the basin. There is also a locally strong and discontinuous convective activity between 08oS and 11oS in the slowdown of the monsoon flow (established over the entire width of the basin). In the second part of the week, the Monsoon Trough is expected to build back over the eastern part of the basin and over the Mozambique Channel.

Depression overland BATSIRAI :

Position at 0930UTC : 22.5oS / 44.9oE

Displacement : South-West at 10 kt

Maximum wind averaged over 10min : 35 kt

Minimum central pressure : 989 hPa

For more information, refer to the WTIO24 and WTIO30 advisories issued at 06UTC and following.

Filling up low CLIFF :

Position at 09UTC : 22.7oS / 79.7oE

Displacement : West-South-West at 8kt

Maximum wind averaged over 10 min : 30/35 kt in the South semicircle by gradient effect with the subtropical high pressure

Minimum central pressure : 1000 hPa

Convective activity is present in burst in the southern semicircle with winds that will gradually weaken over the next 24 hours in the southern semicircle (30/35 kt then 25/30 kt).

There is no other risk of a moderate tropical storm forming in the basin in the next five days.


NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.

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