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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220206152025.AA76C1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 6 Feb 2022 15:20:25 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 061519
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Feb 6 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure centered=20
over the southern United States extends across the Gulf of=20
Mexico. A tight pressure gradient between the high pressure and=20
the equatorial trough in the eastern Pacific is supporting gale-=20
force winds with seas to 15 ft. Winds are expected to drop below
gale- force by early this afternoon. However, fresh to strong=20
winds should continue across the Tehuantepec region through Mon=20
evening when the next gale-force gap wind event is forecast to=20
begin. These winds are expected to rapidly reach speeds of 45 kt
with seas to 13 ft building to 18 ft on Tue. Winds for this=20
second gap wind event are forecast to drop below gale-force by=20
Wed afternoon. Mariners are urged to stay tuned to future=20
forecasts that will highlight details regarding this ongoing=20
event. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the=20
National Hurricane Center at website=20
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__=
;!!DZ3fjg!o2c6Vk-HkiBrJEe-9FICRujK7rpe9RTvKn0BFUP5UjwXKa7cC9XsbaZuO2log4I5J=
gq_SgDV$  for further=20
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 09N86W to 05N90W to 04N97W. The=20
ITCZ continues from 04N97W to 07N110W to 09N120W, then resumes
near 10N136W and extends beyond 10N140W. Isolated moderate=20
convection is within 180 nm of the ITCZ axis W of 110W. A surface
trough is located in the break of the ITCZ and extends from=20
13N123W to 09N130W supporting scattered moderate to strong=20
convection from 09N to 17N between 122W and 133W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
an ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gale-force gap wind event.

Moderate to fresh NW winds are occurring across the Gulf of=20
California with seas of 3-5 ft. Gentle to moderate northerly=20
winds are noted along the Baja California peninsula offshore=20
waters to the region of Jalisco with seas to 5 ft. Light to=20
gentle variable winds prevail across the rest of the SW Mexican=20
offshores.

For the forecast, gale-force winds are expected to persist in the
Tehuantepec region through early this afternoon. The moderate to
fresh NW winds across the Gulf of California will continue=20
through the middle of this week, increasing to strong speeds=20
over the northern half of the gulf Mon morning through Mon=20
night. Moderate to locally fresh winds are expected for the Baja=20
offshores and off the coast of Jalisco through Tue. The next=20
gale-force gap wind event for the Tehuantepec region is forecast=20
to begin by Mon night and continue through late Wed morning.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong NE gap winds are in the Papagayo region with=20
seas to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh N winds are noted in the Gulf of
Panama with seas to 6 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are=20
elsewhere with seas in the 3-5 ft range.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds in the region of=20
Papagayo should continue until Tue when winds diminish to=20
moderate to fresh speeds. Winds are then expected to pulse to=20
fresh to strong at night through the end of the week. Winds in=20
the Gulf of Panama are forecast to pulse to fresh speeds at night
through Thu. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds should prevail=20
across the Central American and equatorial waters through Fri.=20
Swell generated from an ongoing gale-force gap wind event in the=20
Gulf of Tehuantepec is forecast to produce large seas over the=20
Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters through today and again
Tue night through Wed.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

Ridging from a 1031 mb high north of the area extends across the
northern portions of the forecast waters. The pressure gradient=20
between the high pressure and lower pressure associated with a
surface trough extending from 13N123W to 09N130W is producing=20
fresh to locally strong NE to E winds roughly from 10N to 23N and
W of 122W. Seas of 8-10 ft are evident in this region, which is=20
under the influence of mixed NE and NW swell. Mainly gentle to=20
moderate winds and seas of 5-7 ft are present elsewhere over the=20
area.=20

For the forecast, high pressure will remain centered north of=20
the area for the next several days. This should maintain an area
of fresh to strong NE trades over the waters from 10N to 25N and
west of 120W until midweek, when the winds are forecast to start
diminishing. Seas are expected to subside to near or below 8 ft=20
by Wed night.

$$
Latto


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