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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Moderate Tropical Storm 2 (batsirai) 
Message-ID: <20220207004452.3F2AD1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Mon, 7 Feb 2022 00:44:52 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 070019
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 48/2/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/07 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.4 S / 42.3 E
(TWENTY THREE    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 555 SW: 555 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 370 SW: 260 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/07 12 UTC: 24.5 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 575 SW: 530 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 390 SW: 285 NW: 120

24H: 2022/02/08 00 UTC: 25.8 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 595 SW: 535 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 405 SW: 295 NW: 120

36H: 2022/02/08 12 UTC: 27.6 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 600 SW: 545 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 435 SW: 315 NW: 120

48H: 2022/02/09 00 UTC: 29.6 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 620 SW: 555 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 455 SW: 335 NW: 120

60H: 2022/02/09 12 UTC: 32.6 S / 42.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 640 SW: 575 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 470 SW: 350 NW: 120

72H: 2022/02/10 00 UTC: 35.4 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 530 SE: 655 SW: 585 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 490 SW: 360 NW: 120

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/11 00 UTC: 41.2 S / 54.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 555 SE: 685 SW: 610 NW: 305


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=NIL

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINED QUITE
MODEST. MICROWAVE DATA FROM 2158UTC SUGGEST A LOCATION OF THE CENTER
AT THE NORTHERN LIMIT OF THE MOST NOTABLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A
DVORAK ANALYSIS IS STILL DELICATE TO MAKE ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT CURVED
BAND SIGNAL OR SHEAR SYSTEM AT 2.0+ WILL BE ACCEPTABLE. THIS LEAVES
WIND VALUES OF THE ORDER OF 30KT, CLOSE TO THE 35KT PROVIDED BY THE
LAST ASCAT PASS IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR, FAR FROM THE CENTER. BATSIRAI
REMAINS A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM ALTHOUGH ITS CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE
IS LESS.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK : TODAY, BATSIRAI SHOULD START A
PROGRESSIVE TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTH DUE TO THE WEAKNESS OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE SOUTH. FOLLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE WEST, BATSIRAI WILL CONTINUE ITS PLUNGE
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES EVEN MORE STRONGLY FROM TUESDAY. THEN
CAUGHT BY THE WESTERLY FLOW AND FOLLOWING THE TROUGH, BATSIRAI WILL
END ITS LIFE IN AN EAST-SOUTHEAST TRACK TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES IN
THE COURSE OF EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION, TAKING IT TO THE KERGUELEN
ISLANDS AT LONGER TIME SCALES.

BACK ON THE SEA, IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, WHERE THE OCEANIC
POTENTIAL IS STILL SUFFICIENT IN SPITE OF THE RATHER SOUTHERN
LATITUDES, BATSIRAI PRESENTS A WIDE CIRCULATION WITH AN INTENSITY OF
30/35KT PLACING IT AT THE THRESHOLD OF A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM.
WITH WIND SHEAR STARTING TO INCREASE AND A FAIRLY BROAD INITIAL
CIRCULATION, THE SYSTEM IS STRUGGLING TO INTENSIFY AGAIN. THIS LARGE
CIRCULATION COMBINED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS (FIRST DRY AIR PENETRATING FROM THE NORTH AND THEN WIND
SHEAR) DURING ITS PLUNGE TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES WILL LIMIT ITS
INTENSITY TO THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM THRESHOLD. THEN, MOVING TO
SOUTHERN LATITUDES, BATSIRAI SHOULD START A POST-TROPICAL TRANSITION
IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND THEN TEND TOWARDS EXTRA-TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS BY INTERACTION WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.

EXPECTED IMPACTS ON MADAGASCAR AND THE SOUTH OF THE CHANNEL:
- AVERAGE WINDS IN THE ORDER OF 35KT ARE PRESENT ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST WHILE FADING. THESE WINDS ARE ALSO PRESENT ON THE SOUTHWEST
COAST (BETWEEN CAPE SAINT-MARIE AND CAPE SAINT-VINCENT) TURNING NORTH
DURING THE MORNING OF MONDAY. THESE WINDS ARE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTS
CLOSE TO 100 KM/H. THEY PERSIST UNTIL TUESDAY, THEN WEAKEN.
- WITH THE DISPLACEMENT OF BATSIRAI, THE WIND SEA REMAINS PRESENT
SOUTH OF CAPE SAINT-VINCENT BUT THE HEIGHTS WEAKEN RAPIDLY.=

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