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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220207024025.703011C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Mon, 7 Feb 2022 02:40:25 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 070240
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Feb 7 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure is
forecast to build southeastward across Mexico and the western
Gulf of Mexico late Mon. A tight pressure gradient between the=20
high pressure and the equatorial trough in the eastern Pacific
should support gale- force winds beginning Mon night. These=20
winds are expected to rapidly reach speeds of 45 kt with seas to=20
13 ft building to 17 ft on Tue night. Winds will drop below=20
gale-force by Wed afternoon. Mariners are urged to stay tuned to
future forecasts that will highlight details regarding this=20
ongoing event. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued=20
by the National Hurricane Center at website=20
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__=
;!!DZ3fjg!rrxoYMXkFJRUYFkLbaIBLAY-kEJ-AFErEmxvwyS7Jcz98SBkrRfqdyHlo5BNthHTe=
FVCM45A$  for further=20
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 06N78W to 03N80W to 07N87W to
04N94W. The ITCZ continues from 04N94W to 09N116W, then resumes W
of a pair of troughs near 10N313W to 10N140W. Surface troughs
along 118W and 126W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
within 150 nm on either side of troughs and ITCZ.=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gale-force gap wind event.

Moderate to fresh NW winds are occurring across the Gulf of=20
California with seas of 3-5 ft. Gentle to moderate northerly=20
winds are noted along the Baja California peninsula offshore=20
waters to the region of Jalisco with seas to 5 ft. Light to=20
gentle variable winds prevail across the rest of the SW Mexican=20
offshores.

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh NW winds across the Gulf
of California will continue through the middle of this week,=20
increasing to strong speeds over the northern half of the gulf=20
on Mon. Moderate to locally fresh winds are expected for the=20
Baja offshores and off the coast of Jalisco through Tue. The next
gale-force gap wind event for the Tehuantepec region is forecast
to begin by Mon night and continue through Wed.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh NE gap winds are in the Papagayo region with seas to 7 ft.
Moderate N winds are noted in the Gulf of Panama with seas to 5=20
ft. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere with seas in the
3-5 ft range.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds in the region of=20
Papagayo should continue until early Tue, mainly at night. Winds
are then expected to briefly diminish through Wed, and are then=20
expected to pulse to fresh to strong at night Wed night through=20
the end of the week. Winds in the Gulf of Panama are forecast to=20
pulse to fresh speeds at night through Thu. Elsewhere, light to=20
gentle winds should prevail across the Central American and=20
equatorial waters through Fri. Swell generated from an upcoming=20
gale- force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is forecast
to produce large seas over the Guatemala and El Salvador=20
offshore waters Tue night through Wed.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

Ridging from a 1030 mb high north of the area extends across the
northern portions of the forecast waters. The pressure gradient=20
between the high pressure and lower pressure associated with two=20
surface troughs between 10N and 13N is producing fresh NE to E=20
winds roughly from 13N to 22N and W of 122W. Seas of 8-9 ft are=20
evident in this region, which is under the influence of mixed NE=20
and NW swell. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5-7 ft=20
are present elsewhere over the area.=20

For the forecast, high pressure will remain centered north of=20
the area for the next several days. This should maintain an area
of fresh to strong NE trades over the waters from 10N to 25N and
west of 120W until midweek, when the winds are forecast to start
diminishing. Seas are expected to subside to near or below 8 ft=20
by Thu.

$$
ERA


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