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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And 
Message-ID: <20220207055424.CE9EC1C0087@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Mon, 7 Feb 2022 05:54:24 +0000
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TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE WESTERN PACIFIC
ABPW10 PGTW 070600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/070600Z-080600ZFEB2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.4S 160.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.7S 165.9E, APPROXIMATELY
180NM SOUTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY-CONSOLIDATING, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE AND FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE CENTER. A
070233Z ATMS 88.2GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
OVER THE NORTHERN QUADRANT. UPPER-ANALYSIS REVEALS A POINT SOURCE TO
THE SOUTHEAST, WHICH IS PRODUCING VIGOROUS EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW BUT
MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE AT 28-29C. OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW AN INITIAL SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK THEN QUASI-STATIONARY
PERIOD EAST OF NEW CALEDONIA WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION AND
DEVELOPMENT OF AN EXTENSIVE SWATH OF GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THIS REGION WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS THE
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING NEAR
FIJI DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITHIN THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE
ZONE (SPCZ), WHICH EXTENDS EAST INTO THE TONGA AREA (THIS MAY
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE TONGA REGION). MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN


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