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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Remnant Low 2 (batsirai) 
Message-ID: <20220207073735.8E9E81C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Mon, 7 Feb 2022 07:37:35 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 070736
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 49/2/20212022
1.A REMNANT LOW 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/07 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.6 S / 42.2 E
(TWENTY THREE    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 335 SW: 405 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SW: 335 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/07 18 UTC: 25.0 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 370 SW: 380 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 270 SW: 195 NW: 95

24H: 2022/02/08 06 UTC: 26.5 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 370 SW: 380 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 285 SW: 205 NW: 95

36H: 2022/02/08 18 UTC: 29.0 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 370 SW: 380 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 295 SW: 215 NW: 95

48H: 2022/02/09 06 UTC: 31.7 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 370 SW: 380 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 305 SW: 220 NW: 95

60H: 2022/02/09 18 UTC: 35.0 S / 43.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 380 SW: 380 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 325 SW: 230 NW: 95

72H: 2022/02/10 06 UTC: 37.3 S / 46.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 380 SW: 380 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 335 SW: 250 NW: 95

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY  REMAINED ABSENT FROM
THE CIRCULATION INNER CORE, STAYING IN THE SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE, FAR
FROM THE CENTER. THE  0617Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS ONLY WINDS IN
THE ORDER OF 25/30KT IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE NEAR THE CENTER.
FURTHER SOUTH IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT, WINDS REACH 35KT. IN THE
ABSENCE OF CONVECTION, THE SYSTEM IS CLASSIFIED AS A REMNANT LOW.

NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST: TODAY, BATSIRAI SHOULD START A
PROGRESSIVE TURN SOUTHWARD DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED AT SOUTH. ITS MOVEMENT SHOULD REMAIN SLOW AT FIRST BECAUSE OF
CONTRADICTORY FLOWS BETWEEN THE TWO SUBTROPICAL RIDGES TO THE WEST
AND SOUTHEAST. FROM TUESDAY EVENING ONWARDS, WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE ARRIVAL OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST, BATSIRAI SHOULD ACCELERATE
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. BATSIRAI SHOULD DISAPPEAR LATER THIS WEEK
WITHIN A LARGE SURFACE TROUGH.

DESPITE A STILL SUFFICIENT OCEANIC POTENTIAL AT SHORT RANGE, THE
CHANCES FOR A NEW DEVELOPMENT PHASE ARE DECAYING. THE NORTHERLY
SHEAR, COMBINED WITH THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE,
SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. A SHALLOW
DEEPENING WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STILL
POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT HOURS. FROM TOMORROW, WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN
UPPER TROUGH AND THE RAPID DECREASE OF THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. SOUTH OF 30S IN
PARTICULAR, THE SST SHOULD DROP BELOW 23C.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS ON MADAGASCAR, WITH THE PROGRESSIVE EVACUATION OF
THE SYSTEM, THE WIND AND THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINS RELATED TO BATSIRAI
IN THE AREA FROM MOROMBE TO CAP SAINTE-MARIE, SHOULD WEAKEN TOMORROW
AND DEFINITIVELY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.=

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