Received-SPF: pass (google.com: domain of wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu designates 148.163.139.28 as permitted sender) client-ip=148.163.139.28;
From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220207084523.B957C1C0087@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Mon, 7 Feb 2022 08:45:23 +0000
MIME-Version: 1.0
Reply-To: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Errors-to: wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu
Precedence: list
Precedence: bulk
Content-type: multipart/mixed; boundary="----------=_1644223531-49151-5933"

This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1644223531-49151-5933
Content-Type: text/plain
Content-Transfer-Encoding: Quoted-printable

AXPZ20 KNHC 070845
TWDEP=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Feb 7 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure is
forecast to build southeastward across Mexico and the western
Gulf of Mexico late Mon. A tight pressure gradient between the=20
high pressure and the equatorial trough in the eastern Pacific
should support gale- force winds beginning Mon night. These=20
winds are expected to rapidly reach speeds of 45 kt with seas to=20
13 ft building to 17 ft on Tue night. Winds will drop below=20
gale-force by Wed afternoon. Mariners are urged to stay tuned to
future forecasts that will highlight details regarding this=20
ongoing event. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued=20
by the National Hurricane Center at website=20
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__=
;!!DZ3fjg!tIz7Tb1NPvs533hgOjPXXAe-M5XxLP3Nw86tHSP-Htg-AWvO_5dUX9XG1Lhr_GnDV=
4hrh3VL$  for further=20
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 09N87W to 05N96W. The ITCZ=20
continues from 05N96W to 07N118W, then resumes W of a trough=20
near 07N121W to 07N140W. Surface trough is along 118W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted within 200 nm on either side of=20
trough and ITCZ between 105W-129W.=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gale-force gap wind event.

Moderate to fresh NW winds are occurring across the Gulf of=20
California with seas of 3-5 ft. Gentle to moderate northerly=20
winds are noted along the Baja California peninsula offshore=20
waters to the region of Jalisco with seas to 5 ft. Light to=20
gentle variable winds prevail across the rest of the SW Mexican=20
offshores.

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh NW winds across the Gulf
of California will continue through the middle of this week,=20
increasing to strong speeds over the northern half of the gulf=20
today. Moderate to locally fresh winds are expected for the Baja
offshores and off the coast of Jalisco through Tue. The next=20
gale-force gap wind event for the Tehuantepec region is forecast=20
to begin tonight and continue through Wed.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh NE gap winds are in the Papagayo region with seas to 7 ft.
Moderate N winds are noted in the Gulf of Panama with seas to 5=20
ft. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere with seas in the
3-5 ft range.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds in the region of=20
Papagayo should continue until early Tue, mainly at night. Winds
are then expected to briefly diminish through Wed, and are then=20
expected to pulse to fresh to strong at night Wed night through=20
the end of the week. Winds in the Gulf of Panama are forecast to=20
pulse to fresh speeds at night through Thu. Elsewhere, light to=20
gentle winds should prevail across the Central American and=20
equatorial waters through Fri. Swell generated from an upcoming=20
gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is forecast
to produce large seas over the Guatemala and El Salvador=20
offshore waters Tue night through Wed.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

Ridging from a 1033 mb high north of the area extends across the
northern portions of the forecast waters. The pressure gradient=20
between the high pressure and lower pressure associated with a=20
surface trough between 10N and 13N is producing fresh NE to E=20
winds roughly from 13N to 22N and W of 125W. Seas of 8-9 ft are=20
evident in this region, which is under the influence of mixed NE=20
and NW swell. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5-7 ft=20
are present elsewhere over the area.=20

For the forecast, high pressure will remain centered north of=20
the area for the next several days. This should maintain an area
of fresh to strong NE trades over the waters from 10N to 25N and
W of 120W until midweek, when the winds are forecast to start=20
diminishing. Seas are expected to subside to near or below 8 ft=20
by Thu.

$$
ERA


------------=_1644223531-49151-5933
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = = == = =
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-TROPL.
------------=_1644223531-49151-5933--