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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
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Date: Mon, 7 Feb 2022 11:40:34 +0000
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170 
AWIO20 FMEE 071139

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2022/02/07 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


Warnings WTIO24 and WTIO30 049/02 issued at 06UTC on Remnant Low BATSIRAI.

Next warnings issued at 12UTC.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:


The basin is in a Monsoon trough (MT) pattern with a MT still strongly interrupted by the presence of BATSIRAI and CLIFF along its southern edge. Convective activity is more and more anecdotal near the filling low CLIFF but remains a little more significant near BATSIRAI towards the south of Madagascar, although weaker than on previous days. While BATSIRAI gradually moves away towards more southern latitudes and while CLIFF keeps weakening, the main convective activity over the basin is beginning to reform in the vicinity of the MT, between 07 and 13oS, in the slowing of the monsoon flow, although it still remains poorly organized.

Remnant Low BATSIRAI :

Position at 10UTC : 24.4oS / 41.8oE

Movement : South-Southwest at 8 kt

Maximum wind averaged over 10 min : 35 kt

Minimum central pressure : 992 hPa

For more information, please refer to bulletins WTIO24 and WTIO30 issued at 06UTC and following.

Filling Low CLIFF :

Position at 10UTC : 24.2oS / 75.3oE

Movement : West-South-West at 11 kt

Maximum wind averaged over 10 min : 20/25 kt in the southern semicircle by gradient effect.

Minimum central pressure : 1003 hPa

At the end of the week, with better convergence on the polar side linked to a trade wind regime no longer disturbed by remnants of tropical systems, and the maintenance of an active monsoon flow, the MT should strengthen more frankly over the entire width of the basin and even up to the Australian domain. Convergence should be more enhanced over the eastern part of the basin and to a lesser extent towards the north of the Mozambique Channel. Moreover, the expected arrival of an active phase of the MJO combined with an equatorial Rossby wave crossing a Kelvin wave could once again help trigger a new cyclogenesis, especially over the eastern part of the basin (or in the neighbouring Australian area of responsibility), but this risk should not appear before Sunday or next Monday. For the next 5 days, ensemble and deterministic models do not suggest a risk of a new storm formation for the moment.

Development of another tropical storm is not expected for the next five days over the basin.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.

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