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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Post-tropical Depression 2 (ex-batsirai) 
Message-ID: <20220207124843.EC6371C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Mon, 7 Feb 2022 12:48:43 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 071233
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 50/2/20212022
1.A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 (EX-BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/07 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.8 S / 41.7 E
(TWENTY FOUR    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 405 SW: 405 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SW: 335 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/08 00 UTC: 26.0 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 490 SW: 435 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SW: 305 NW: 165

24H: 2022/02/08 12 UTC: 27.7 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 445 SW: 400 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SW: 230 NW: 185

36H: 2022/02/09 00 UTC: 30.0 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 545 SW: 415 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 315 SW: 230 NW: 195

48H: 2022/02/09 12 UTC: 33.0 S / 42.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 555 SW: 415 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 345 SW: 270 NW: 155

60H: 2022/02/10 00 UTC: 35.5 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 545 SE: 435 SW: 285 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 295 SW: 155 NW: 185

72H: 2022/02/10 12 UTC: 37.7 S / 48.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 400 SW: 295 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 285 SW: 195 NW: 205

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY RESUMED IN THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE INNER CORE. IN RELATION WITH THE INCREASING
NORTH-NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR, THIS BURST HELPED IN ELONGATING THE
CIRCULATION NEAR THE CENTRE. THIS LOSS OF SYMMETRY IN A CONTEXT OF
POLARWARD ACCELERATION, LED TO THE CLASSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM AS
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION EX-BATSIRAI.

NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST: TODAY, BATSIRAI STARTED A
PROGRESSIVE ACCELERATION SOUTHWARD IN DIRECTION OF A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ITS MOVEMENT SHOULD REMAIN SLOW AT FIRST BECAUSE
OF CONTRADICTORY FLOWS BETWEEN THE TWO SUBTROPICAL RIDGES TO THE WEST
AND SOUTHEAST. FROM TUESDAY EVENING ONWARDS, WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE ARRIVAL OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST, EX-BATSIRAI SHOULD ACCELERATE
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. BATSIRAI SHOULD FINALLY DISAPPEAR LATER THIS
WEEK WITHIN A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH.

DESPITE A STILL SUFFICIENT OCEANIC POTENTIAL AT SHORT RANGE, THE
CHANCES FOR A NEW DEVELOPMENT PHASE ARE DECAYING. THE NORTHERLY
SHEAR, COMBINED WITH THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE,
SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. A SHALLOW
DEEPENING WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STILL
POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT HOURS. FROM TOMORROW, WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN
UPPER TROUGH AND THE RAPID DECREASE OF THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. SOUTH OF
30S IN PARTICULAR, THE SST SHOULD DROP BELOW 23C.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS ON MADAGASCAR, WITH THE PROGRESSIVE EVACUATION OF
THE SYSTEM, THE WIND AND THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINS RELATED TO BATSIRAI
IN THE AREA FROM MOROMBE TO CAP SAINTE-MARIE, SHOULD WEAKEN TOMORROW
AND DEFINITIVELY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.=

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