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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220207215751.ECE321C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Mon, 7 Feb 2022 21:57:51 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 072157
TWDEP=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Feb 7 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure is
building southeastward across Mexico and the western Gulf of=20
Mexico behind a cold front. A tight pressure gradient between=20
the high pressure and the equatorial trough in the eastern=20
Pacific will support gale-force winds beginning this evening.=20
These winds are expected to rapidly reach speeds of 45 kt by Tue
morning. Seas will build to 17 ft by midday Tue. Winds will drop
below gale-force by Wed afternoon. Please read the latest High=20
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website=20
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__=
;!!DZ3fjg!u4_mxJyBmfJGyooGLTGw0FYsy7PIILr4XklDPiJiXhpUJBgkPxl2WbRdVtYdgEBXm=
yjK4i5N$  for further=20
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 09N86W to 06N91W to 05N99W. The=20
ITCZ continues from 05N99W to 08N108W to 10N117W, then resumes W
of a trough near 10N122W to 09N130W to 07.5N140W. A surface=20
trough extending from 11N118W to 06N121W splits the ITCZ.
Isolated moderate convection is noted from 08N to 13N between=20
111W and 117W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gale-force gap wind event.

Recent ASCAT satellite wind data show fresh to strong NW to N
winds in the northern Gulf of California, where an altimeter pass
from this morning showed seas of 3 to 5 ft. Moderate to fresh NW
winds are occurring across the southern Gulf of California with
2-4 ft seas. Fresh NW to N winds are noted in the satellite data
offshore of Cabo Corrientes, where seas are likely 4-6 ft.=20
Strong to near gale force N winds are likely occurring in the=20
Gulf of Tehuantepec, north of 15N, where seas are 6 ft. Gentle=20
to moderate N winds are observed west of Baja California. Light=20
to gentle winds are elsewhere. Seas are 4-6 ft west of Baja
California and 3-5 ft from Michoacan to Oaxaca.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NW winds will continue across
the northern and central Gulf of California through tonight.
Then, moderate to fresh NW winds will continue there through the
middle of this week. Moderate winds are expected for the Baja=20
offshores and off the coast of Jalisco through Tue. The strong to
near gale force winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will increase
to gale force this evening, and diminish below gale force Wed
afternoon. Fresh to strong N winds will then continue through Thu
night. Looking ahead, the next potential gale force event in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec could begin over the weekend.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh NE winds are in the Papagayo region with seas=20
of 5-6 ft. Moderate N winds are noted in the Gulf of Panama with
seas of 4-5 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere=20
with seas in the 3-5 ft range.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds in the Papagayo region
should continue through Tue morning. Winds will then briefly
diminish through Tue evening. Then, pulsing fresh to strong=20
winds will resume in the Papagayo region early Wed morning and=20
continue through the end of the week and into the weekend.
Pulsing moderate to fresh N winds are expected in the Gulf of=20
Panama each night through Fri night. Light to gentle winds will=20
prevail elsewhere. Swell generated from an upcoming gale-force=20
gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is forecast to produce=20
large seas of 7 to 11 ft over the Guatemala and El Salvador=20
offshore waters Tue afternoon through Wed.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A surface trough extends from 19N132W to 14N135W. Scattered=20
moderate convection is seen from 14N to 20N between 130W and=20
134W. Recent scatterometer data show strong winds within the
convection.

Ridging from a 1035 mb high pressure north of the area near
39N133W extends across the northern portions of the forecast=20
waters. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower
pressure associated with the aforementioned surface trough is=20
producing fresh to strong E winds roughly from 14N to 23N and W=20
of 120W. Seas of 8-10 ft are evident in this region, which is=20
under the influence of mixed NE and NW swell, highest near the=20
surface trough. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and seas of 6-7=20
ft are present elsewhere over the area.=20

For the forecast, high pressure will remain centered north of=20
the area for the next few days. This should maintain an area of=20
fresh to strong NE trades over the waters from 10N to 25N and W=20
of 120W through Wed morning. Thereafter, the high will retreat
farther north, diminishing the gradient, and decreasing the=20
winds. Seas are expected to subside to near or below 8 ft by Thu=20
night.

$$
Hagen


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