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[148.163.135.28]) by mx.google.com with ESMTPS id i126si8126346ybc.502.2022.02.07.18.59.51 for (version=TLS1_2 cipher=ECDHE-RSA-AES128-GCM-SHA256 bits=128/128); Mon, 07 Feb 2022 18:59:52 -0800 (PST) Received-SPF: pass (google.com: domain of wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu designates 148.163.135.28 as permitted sender) client-ip=148.163.135.28; Authentication-Results: mx.google.com; spf=pass (google.com: domain of wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu designates 148.163.135.28 as permitted sender) smtp.mailfrom=wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu Received: from pps.filterd (m0166255.ppops.net [127.0.0.1]) by mx0a-00007101.pphosted.com (8.16.1.2/8.16.1.2) with ESMTP id 2182a5fF002074 for ; Tue, 8 Feb 2022 02:59:51 GMT Received: from lists.illinois.edu (lists.illinois.edu [192.17.172.63]) by mx0a-00007101.pphosted.com (PPS) with ESMTP id 3e35yayb2t-6 for ; Tue, 08 Feb 2022 02:59:51 +0000 Received: by lists.illinois.edu (Postfix, from userid 50033) id D714FE26C8; Mon, 7 Feb 2022 20:59:50 -0600 (CST) Delivered-To: wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu Received: from mx0b-00007101.pphosted.com (mx0b-00007101.pphosted.com [148.163.139.28]) by lists.illinois.edu (Postfix) with ESMTPS id E009AE26C8 for ; Mon, 7 Feb 2022 20:59:37 -0600 (CST) Received: from pps.filterd (m0166259.ppops.net [127.0.0.1]) by mx0b-00007101.pphosted.com (8.16.1.2/8.16.1.2) with ESMTP id 2181H7ii013185 for ; Tue, 8 Feb 2022 02:59:37 GMT Received: from fortimail.cod.edu (fortimail.cod.edu [192.203.136.203]) by mx0b-00007101.pphosted.com (PPS) with ESMTPS id 3e1g2sycer-1 (version=TLSv1.2 cipher=ECDHE-RSA-AES256-GCM-SHA384 bits=256 verify=NOT) for ; Tue, 08 Feb 2022 02:59:37 +0000 Received: from mail.cod.edu ([10.11.1.123]) by fortimail.cod.edu with ESMTP id 2182xav8019529-2182xavA019529 (version=TLSv1.2 cipher=ECDHE-RSA-AES256-GCM-SHA384 bits=256 verify=OK) for ; Mon, 7 Feb 2022 20:59:36 -0600 Received: from MAIL19.cdnet-ad.ad.cod.edu (10.11.1.123) by MAIL19.cdnet-ad.ad.cod.edu (10.11.1.123) with Microsoft SMTP Server (version=TLS1_2, cipher=TLS_ECDHE_RSA_WITH_AES_256_GCM_SHA384) id 15.2.986.14; Mon, 7 Feb 2022 20:59:36 -0600 Received: from weather.cod.edu (10.11.2.79) by MAIL.cod.edu (10.11.1.123) with Microsoft SMTP Server id 15.2.986.14 via Frontend Transport; Mon, 7 Feb 2022 20:59:36 -0600 Received: by weather.cod.edu (Postfix, from userid 1001) id 1DDE81C0EEE; Tue, 8 Feb 2022 02:59:36 +0000 (UTC) From: COD Weather Processor To: Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Formation Alert// Message-ID: <20220208025936.1DDE81C0EEE@weather.cod.edu> Date: Tue, 8 Feb 2022 02:59:36 +0000 MIME-Version: 1.0 X-FE-Policy-ID: 7:6:2:SYSTEM X-Spam-Details: rule=cautious_plus_nq_notspam policy=cautious_plus_nq score=0 lowpriorityscore=0 phishscore=0 malwarescore=0 priorityscore=126 adultscore=0 mlxscore=0 mlxlogscore=334 clxscore=303 bulkscore=0 suspectscore=0 spamscore=0 impostorscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx scancount=1 engine=8.12.0-2201110000 definitions=main-2202080013 X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather.cod.edu X-Spam-Bar: X-Sympa-Topic: Pacific-SW Reply-To: COD Weather Processor X-Loop: wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu X-Sequence: 281056 Errors-to: wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu Precedence: list Precedence: bulk X-no-archive: yes List-Id: List-Help: List-Owner: List-Post: List-Subscribe: List-Unsubscribe: Content-type: multipart/mixed; boundary="----------=_1644289182-49151-6271" X-Proofpoint-GUID: yLP-8B2bEv7l4DNqmXvZIKnM3ktzLLOH X-Proofpoint-ORIG-GUID: yLP-8B2bEv7l4DNqmXvZIKnM3ktzLLOH X-Spam-Details: rule=cautious_plus_nq_notspam policy=cautious_plus_nq score=0 mlxscore=0 priorityscore=1501 malwarescore=0 clxscore=1034 bulkscore=0 impostorscore=0 mlxlogscore=739 phishscore=0 suspectscore=0 adultscore=0 lowpriorityscore=0 spamscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx scancount=1 engine=8.12.0-2201110000 definitions=main-2202080013 X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-OrigSender: wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu X-Spam-Bar: This is a multi-part message in MIME format... ------------=_1644289182-49151-6271 Content-Type: text/plain WTPS21 PGTW 080300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 080 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.9S 166.9E TO 20.5S 168.3E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 080230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.9S 167.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.7S 165.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.9S 167.0E, APPROXIMATELY 152 NM SOUTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 071428Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). IN ADDITION, THERE ARE DEEP, FRAGMENTED POCKETS OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES OF THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT TO INCLUDE ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS TO INCLUDE GFS, NAVGEM, AND JMA ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE INVEST 92P GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND TRACKS EAST TOWARD FIJI. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 090300Z. // NNNN ------------=_1644289182-49151-6271 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" Content-Disposition: inline Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT = = = == = = To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-TROPL. ------------=_1644289182-49151-6271--