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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220208031659.E94BF1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 8 Feb 2022 03:16:59 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 080313
TWDEP=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Feb 8 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure is
building southeastward across Mexico and the western Gulf of=20
Mexico behind a cold front. A tight pressure gradient between=20
the high pressure and the equatorial trough in the eastern=20
Pacific will support gale-force winds over the Tehuantepec region.
These winds are expected to rapidly reach speeds of 45 kt by Tue
morning. Seas will build to 17 ft by midday Tue. Winds will drop
below gale-force by Wed at 18 UTC. Please read the latest High=20
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website=20
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__=
;!!DZ3fjg!t7h-ldgiANAOq_JON6TIXKdlybWD_93U6mxoooOxwLGS_a3jtbBfanMeQoEavX0Bw=
K7ibqwf$  for further=20
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 10N86W to 06N95W. The ITCZ=20
continues from 06N95W to 10N119W, then resumes W of a trough=20
near 09N127W to 07N140W. A surface trough extending from 13N119W
to 04N126W splits the ITCZ. Scattered showers are noted along the
boundaries.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gale-force gap wind event.

Latest ASCAT satellite wind data depict fresh to strong NW to N=20
winds in the northern Gulf of California, where a recent=20
altimeter pass depicted seas of 3 to 5 ft. Moderate to fresh NW=20
winds are occurring across the southern Gulf of California with=20
2-4 ft seas. Fresh NW to N winds are noted in the satellite data=20
offshore of Cabo Corrientes, where seas are likely 4-6 ft. Gale=20
force N winds are likely occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec,=20
north of 15N, where seas are 8-9 ft. Gentle to moderate N winds=20
are noted west of Baja California. Light to gentle winds are=20
elsewhere. Seas are 4-6 ft west of Baja California and 3-5 ft=20
from Michoacan to Oaxaca.

For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient between high=20
pressure over Mexico and the equatorial trough in the EPAC waters
will continue to support gale-force winds in the Gulf of=20
Tehuantepec from tonight through Wed. Winds peaking on Tue at=20
40-45 kt and seas forecast to peak at 15-17 ft. Elsewhere, fresh=20
to strong NW winds will continue across the northern and central=20
Gulf of California through tonight. Then, moderate to fresh NW=20
winds will continue through the middle of this week. Moderate=20
winds are expected for the Baja offshores and off the coast of=20
Jalisco through Tue. Looking ahead, the next gale force event in=20
the Gulf of Tehuantepec is expected over the weekend.=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh NE winds are in the Papagayo region with seas=20
of 5-6 ft. Moderate N winds are noted in the Gulf of Panama with
seas of 4-5 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere=20
with seas in the 3-5 ft range.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds in the Papagayo region
should continue through Tue morning. Winds will then briefly
diminish through Tue evening. Then, pulsing fresh to strong=20
winds will resume in the Papagayo region early Wed morning and=20
continue through the end of the week and into the weekend.
Pulsing moderate to fresh N winds are expected in the Gulf of=20
Panama each night through Fri night. Light to gentle winds will=20
prevail elsewhere. Swell generated from an upcoming gale-force=20
gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is forecast to produce=20
large seas of 7 to 11 ft over the Guatemala and El Salvador=20
offshore waters Tue afternoon through Wed.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A surface trough extends from 19N133W to 16N134W. Scattered=20
moderate convection is noted from 15N to 22N between 129W and=20
135W. Recent scatterometer data depicted fresh to strong winds=20
within the convection.

Ridging from a 1034 mb high pressure north of the area near=20
38N135W extends across the northern portions of the forecast=20
waters. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower
pressure associated with the aforementioned surface trough is=20
producing fresh to strong E winds roughly from 14N to 23N and W=20
of 120W. Seas of 8-10 ft are evident in this region, which is=20
under the influence of mixed NE and NW swell, highest near the=20
surface trough. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and seas of 6-7=20
ft are present elsewhere over the area.=20

For the forecast, high pressure will remain centered north of=20
the area for the next few days. This should maintain an area of=20
fresh to strong NE trades over the waters from 10N to 25N and W=20
of 120W through Wed morning. Thereafter, the high will retreat
farther north, diminishing the gradient, and decreasing the=20
winds. Seas are expected to subside to near or below 8 ft by Thu=20
night.

$$
ERA


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