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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And 
Message-ID: <20220208053359.E12671C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 8 Feb 2022 05:33:59 +0000
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Reply-To: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
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ABPW10 PGTW 080600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/080600Z-090600ZFEB2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080252ZFEB2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 19.7S 165.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.9S 167.0E, APPROXIMATELY
152 NM SOUTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY AND A 080239Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT FORMATIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC).  IN ADDITION, THERE ARE
DEEP, FRAGMENTED POCKETS OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PERIPHERIES OF THE LLC.  ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT TO INCLUDE ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
LOW-MODERATE (10-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE INVEST
92P GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND TRACKS
EASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS21 080300) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN


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