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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian 
Message-ID: <20220208055418.AB35F1C0087@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 8 Feb 2022 05:54:18 +0000
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TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 080330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/REISSUED/080330Z-081800ZFEB2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080151ZFEB2022//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080251ZFEB2022//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 08FEB22 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 26.8S 41.6E, APPROXIMATELY 286 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
EUROPA ISLAND, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50
KNOTS GUSTING TO 65 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 080300) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.5S 105.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 105.6E, APPROXIMATELY
203 NM SOUTH OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND
A 072335Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC)
WITH DEEP BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. IN ADDITION, THERE IS
BROAD, DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PERIPHERIES
OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR DEVELOPMENT TO INCLUDE FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (29-30) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE INVEST 93S IS A COMPACT
SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK WEST-SOUTHWEST SLOWLY INTENSIFYING OVER THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B


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