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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Moderate Tropical Storm 2 (batsirai) 
Message-ID: <20220208072324.488811C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 8 Feb 2022 07:23:24 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 080641
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 53/2/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/08 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.7 S / 42.3 E
(TWENTY SIX    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 665 SW: 445 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 425 SW: 350 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/08 18 UTC: 29.3 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 650 SW: 370 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 305 SW: 250 NW: 165

24H: 2022/02/09 06 UTC: 32.0 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 575 SW: 360 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 285 SW: 270 NW: 175

36H: 2022/02/09 18 UTC: 34.7 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 545 SW: 345 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SW: 215 NW: 195

48H: 2022/02/10 06 UTC: 36.5 S / 47.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 335 SW: 215 NW: 360
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 185 SW: 120 NW: 215

60H: 2022/02/10 18 UTC: 39.0 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 295 SW: 150 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 175 SW: 120 NW: 0

72H: 2022/02/11 06 UTC: 43.8 S / 60.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 545 SE: 305 SW: 110 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 140 SW: 85 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=/

BATSIRAI IS MAINTAINING A SHEARED PATTERN, WITH A LOW LEVEL CENTER
EXPOSED FAR NORTH OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, WHICH IS CLEARLY
WEAKENING SINCE THE LAST FORECAST. THE LAST CIMSS ANALYSES DEPICT A
DEEP NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR, OF THE ORDER OF 20/25 KT AND A MID-TROPO
WINDSHEAR OF THE SAME ORDER OF MAGNITUDE. DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE
FADING OF CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM, THE
DVORAK ANALYSIS IS MADE TRICKY. THE LAST OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES OF THE
INTENSITY LEAN TOWARDS 35KT ON AVERAGE. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS
HOWEVER RAISED TO 40KT, GIVEN THE 0130Z HY-2C SWATH SHOWING MAXIMUM
40KT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

BATSIRAI IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD DESCENT TOWARDS THE WEAKNESS OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ITS MOVEMENT SHOULD START TO ACCELERATE WITH THE
DRIFT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TODAY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM
AND THE ARRIVAL OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BATSIRAI
SHOULD ACCELERATE SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARD AT FIRST THEN SOUTH-EASTWARD
TONIGHT. BATSIRAI SHOULD FINALLY DISAPPEAR IN THE SECOND PART OF THE
WEEK WITHIN A LARGE SURFACE TROUGH SOUTHWARDS.

BATSARAI SHOULD BENEFIT FROM A FEW MORE HOURS OF SUFFICIENT OCEANIC
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM SHOULD NOT INTENSIFY ANY MORE BECAUSE
OF A PERSISTENT DEEP NORTHERLY SHEAR, BECOMING MORE IMPORTANT IN THE
SHORT TERM, CONTRIBUTING TO BRING DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE
AND THUS STRONGLY LIMITING THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. TONIGHT,
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH RISING AND THE SIGNIFICANT DECREASE OF THE
OCEANIC POTENTIAL, THE SYSTEM SHOULD DEFINITIVELY LOSE ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS.

THE SYSTEM DOES NOT PRESENT ANY MORE THREAT FOR THE INHABITED LANDS.=

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