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To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A1 Issued From Rsmc Nadi 
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Date: Tue, 8 Feb 2022 07:39:08 +0000
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WTPS11 NFFN 080600
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 080738 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD08F CENTER [993HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 19.1S
167.4E AT 080600UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. DEPRESSION SLOW MOVING. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS. 

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PERSIST WITH PRIMARY BANDS TRYING TO WRAP
ONTO THE LLCC FROM THE NORTH. ORGANISATION AND CURVATURE IS
IMPROVING. SYSTEM LIES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A
MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 29 DEGREE CELSIUS.  GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT EAST-SOUTHEAST
WITH INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. DVORAK ANALYSIS
BASED ON CURVED BAND WITH 0.4 WRAP WITH GAPS IN DEEP CONVECTIVE CLOUD
GIVES DT OF 2.5, PAT 2.0 AND MET 2.0. THUS FT BASED ON PAT YIELDING
T2.0/2.5/D0.5/24HRS.  

FORECASTS:
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 081800 UTC 19.6S 167.9E MOV SE AT 04KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 090600 UTC 20.1S 168.1E MOV SSE AT 03KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 091800 UTC 20.7S 167.8E MOV SSE AT 03KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 100600 UTC 21.9S 167.3E MOV S AT 04KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD08F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
140000 UTC.


 


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