Received-SPF: pass (google.com: domain of wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu designates 148.163.135.28 as permitted sender) client-ip=148.163.135.28;
From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220208082050.DBF751C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 8 Feb 2022 08:20:50 +0000
MIME-Version: 1.0
Reply-To: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Errors-to: wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu
Precedence: list
Precedence: bulk
Content-type: multipart/mixed; boundary="----------=_1644308463-49151-6358"

This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1644308463-49151-6358
Content-Type: text/plain
Content-Transfer-Encoding: Quoted-printable

AXPZ20 KNHC 080820
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Feb 8 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure continues
building southeastward across Mexico and the western Gulf of=20
Mexico behind a cold front. A tight pressure gradient between the
high pressure and the equatorial trough in the eastern Pacific
supports gale-force winds over the Tehuantepec region. These
winds will rapidly increase to 45 kt this morning, with seas=20
building to 16 ft in the afternoon. Winds will drop below gale-=20
force by Wed at 18 UTC. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website=20
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__=
;!!DZ3fjg!oSthJwJEArouJKxD0X1Zoz2vvvQ-oic2ZFTYi8oHf6ajeQBKgBLz0zGhEY8gcjb0q=
ZUQ710_$  for further=20
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 11N86W to 06N94W. The ITCZ=20
continues from 06N94W to 10N113W, then resumes W of a pair of
troughs near 09N128W to 07N140W. The surface troughs are along
117W and 125W. Scattered showers are noted along the boundaries.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale-force gap wind event.

Fresh NW winds are noted in latest scatterometer data in the=20
northern Gulf of California, where a recent altimeter pass=20
depicted seas of 3 to 5 ft. Moderate NW winds are occurring=20
across the southern Gulf of California reaching Cabo Corrientes, with
2-5 ft seas. Gale force N winds are likely occurring in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec, north of 15N, where seas are 8-10 ft. Gentle to=20
moderate N winds are noted west of Baja California. Light to=20
gentle winds are elsewhere. Seas are 4-6 ft west of Baja=20
California and 3-5 ft from Michoacan to Oaxaca.

For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient between high=20
pressure over Mexico and the equatorial trough in the EPAC waters
will continue to support gale-force winds in the Gulf of=20
Tehuantepec through Wed. Winds peaking on Tue at 40-45 kt and=20
seas forecast to peak at 14-16 ft. Elsewhere, fresh NW winds=20
will continue across the northern and central Gulf of California=20
through the morning hours. Then, moderate to fresh NW winds will
continue through the middle of this week. Moderate winds are=20
expected for the Baja offshores and off the coast of Jalisco=20
today. Looking ahead, the next gale force event in the Gulf of=20
Tehuantepec is expected over the weekend.=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh NE winds are in the Papagayo region with seas=20
of 5-6 ft. Moderate N winds are noted in the Gulf of Panama with
seas of 4-5 ft. Light to gentle variable winds prevail elsewhere
with seas in the 3-5 ft range.

For the forecast, moderate winds in the Papagayo region should=20
continue through this morning. Then, pulsing fresh to strong=20
winds will resume in the Papagayo region Wed morning and continue
through the end of the week and into the weekend. Pulsing=20
moderate to fresh N winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama each
night through Fri night. Light to gentle winds will prevail=20
elsewhere. Swell generated from the gale-force gap wind event in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec is forecast to produce large seas of 7=20
to 11 ft over the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters this=20
afternoon through Wed.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A surface trough extends from 18N130W to 14N131W. Scattered=20
showers are from 15N to 22N between 129W and 135W. Recent=20
scatterometer data depicted fresh to strong winds within the=20
convection.

Ridging from a 1036 mb high pressure north of the area near=20
40N136W extends across the northern portions of the forecast=20
waters. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower
pressure associated with the aforementioned surface trough is=20
producing fresh to strong E winds roughly from 13N to 20N and W=20
of 118W. Seas of 8-10 ft are evident in this region, which is=20
under the influence of NW swell, highest near the surface=20
trough. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and seas of 6-7 ft are=20
present elsewhere over the area.=20

For the forecast, high pressure will remain centered north of=20
the area for the next few days. This should maintain an area of=20
fresh to strong NE trades over the waters from 10N to 25N and W=20
of 120W through Wed morning. Thereafter, the high will retreat
farther north, diminishing the gradient, and decreasing the=20
winds. Seas are expected to subside to near or below 8 ft by Thu=20
night.

$$
ERA


------------=_1644308463-49151-6358
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = = == = =
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-TROPL.
------------=_1644308463-49151-6358--