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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
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Date: Tue, 8 Feb 2022 12:05:09 +0000
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683 
AWIO20 FMEE 081105

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2022/02/08 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


Warnings WTIO24 and WTIO30 053/02 issued at 06UTC on Post-tropical depression EX-BATSIRAI.

Next and last warning issued at 12UTC.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:


The basin is in a Monsoon trough (MT) pattern with a MT still noisy by the presence of low pressure circulations BATSIRAI and CLIFF in its southern edge. Convective activity is more and more anecdotal near the post-tropical low BATSIRAI towards the south of Madagascar. While BATSIRAI gradually moves away towards more southern latitudes and while CLIFF keeps weakening, the main convective activity of the basin begins to reform on the equatorial side of the TM undulating between 07 and 13oS, in the slowing of the monsoon flow.

Post-tropical depression EX-BATSIRAI :

Position at 09UTC: 27.9oS / 42.05oE

Movement: South-Southwest at 20 kt

Maximum wind averaged over 10 min : 40 kt

Minimum central pressure : 990 hPa
For more information, please refer to bulletins WTIO21 and WTIO31 issued at 06UTC and 12UTC. The 12UTC bulletin will be the last bulletin issued for this system.

Depression filling CLIFF :

Position at 10UTC: 24.6oS / 71.6oE

Movement : West-South-West at 8 kt

Maximum wind averaged over 10 min: 30 kt in the southern semicircle by gradient effect

Minimum central pressure : 1003 hPa

At the end of the week, with better convergence on the polar side linked to a trade wind regime no longer disturbed by the remnants of tropical systems, and the maintenance of an active monsoon flow, the TM should be reconstituted more frankly over the entire width of the basin and even up to the Australian domain. Convergence should be more pronounced over the eastern part of the basin and to a lesser extent towards the north of the Mozambique Channel. In parallel, the expected arrival of an active phase of the MJO combined with a probable crossing between equatorial Rossby wave and Kelvin wave could favor the development of cyclogenesis over the extreme east of the basin. Assembly models and some deterministic models are beginning to suggest a low risk of tropical storm formation late next week.

There is a low risk of a tropical storm forming over the far east of the basin at the end of the period.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.

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